Will Democrats gift the elections to Trump?

President Biden's debate performance, to put it mildly, has created quite a stir within the Democratic Party. Before the debate, polls indicated a tight race, with Biden needing to make a strong move. Trump seemed to have a slight edge in many swing states, and Biden needed to change the race's dynamics. Instead, his poor performance ended up benefiting Trump. Currently, there's significant unrest within the Democratic Party, but there isn't much they can do if Biden doesn't voluntarily step down. If he insists on running, the party will have to rely on an anti-Trump campaign, but this could very well hand the presidency to Trump.

Historic Debate Moments

Experts in American politics say debate programs like these can be misleading when predicting election outcomes. However, some historic moments during debates can critically impact a candidate's image. For example, George H. W. Bush checking his watch during a debate, Ronald Reagan's quip about not exploiting his opponent's youth, and Trump's "you'd be in jail" response to Hillary Clinton are all examples of such moments. These "historic moments" may not determine election outcomes but are pivotal in capturing the election atmosphere.

In a period when there was doubt whether Biden would even agree to debate Trump, he committed to three debates, with the first scheduled for June before the candidates were officially confirmed. This reflected anxiety within the Biden campaign. Despite positive economic signals, Biden was losing ground due to inflation and immigration issues, and struggled to dispel concerns about his age and mental acuity. To project confidence and counter claims that he was afraid to debate Trump, the Biden campaign insisted on a debate format without an audience.

Republican channels frequently highlighted scenes where Biden seemed to freeze, suggesting dementia symptoms. The insistence on a debate without an audience might have been to avoid such moments, or to prevent Trump from feeding off the crowd's energy. The Biden campaign likely hoped that controlling the debate's timing and format would allow Biden to deliver his message clearly and let Trump make mistakes. However, Biden's debate performance showed these plans fell apart, with his hesitations and moments of incomprehensibility becoming some of the most notable debate moments.

Will Biden Withdraw?

After the debate, top Democrats publicly supported Biden and emphasized the dangers of a Trump presidency, but privately, they acknowledged the debate was a disaster. There has been much speculation and theories in the media about Biden voluntarily withdrawing. While Biden's close family insists he stays in the race, influential figures like Obama reportedly support an open convention where anyone can compete. Recent polls not only confirm doubts about Biden's age and mental fitness but also show Trump leading even in states like New Hampshire, which Biden comfortably won before. The deadline for Biden to confirm his candidacy in Ohio is early August, leaving little time for him to withdraw.

Even if Biden is convinced to step down, the Democratic Party faces a tough challenge. Skipping over Kamala Harris, who polls as weak against Trump as Biden, could divide the party. If Biden insists on Harris's candidacy, investing in a candidate seen as a continuation of Biden rather than the strongest opponent to Trump would weaken the Democrats. If Biden is convinced to withdraw and an open convention is held, candidates like California Governor Gavin Newsom and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker might emerge, but Harris’s potential to increase female and Black voter turnout gives her an edge. However, popularity within the Democratic Party doesn't necessarily translate to an advantage in a national race against Trump, as the election's outcome will still hinge on critical swing states.

Even in a scenario where Biden withdraws and the Democrats unify and mobilize effectively, it doesn’t guarantee a win against Trump, who has effectively used economic and immigration issues. In the next month, the Democratic Party must either transform this chaotic situation into a winning strategy or risk handing the presidency to Trump by persisting with Biden.