Swing States in the Trump-Harris Race

With just two months to go before the presidential election, polls are showing a tight race. Public opinion surveys indicate that Harris maintains a steady advantage over Trump nationwide. However, since U.S. elections are often decided by swing states, it's crucial to look at polls from these regions. Nationwide, Harris is showing a 3.2% lead over Trump at the beginning of September, up from a tie in July. This suggests that Harris has managed to build on her momentum in August, but her nationwide positive trend isn't enough to open a significant gap in swing states. If the election were held today, it would be very close. The next two months could bring game-changing surprises, but debates and campaign performance in swing states will likely determine the outcome.

The latest CNN poll focused on six swing states shows Harris leading in Michigan (48% to 43%) and Wisconsin (50% to 44%). Trump is leading in Arizona (49% to 44%). In Georgia (48% Harris, 47% Trump) and Pennsylvania (47% to 47%), the numbers indicate a dead heat. Considering the margin of error, the competition in these swing states will be tight until the end. In the 2020 race, Biden won Michigan by 150,000 votes, Wisconsin by 20,000, Pennsylvania by 80,000, Arizona by 10,000, and Georgia by 11,000. For Harris to replicate Biden’s success in swing states, she would need to flip a state Trump won, which would be a significant challenge.

Polls in swing states align with national figures, showing that the most important issues to voters are the economy, immigration, democracy, and reproductive rights. Harris's recent announcement of an economic support program for small businesses aims to address the political burden of high inflation from Biden's term. She is focusing on issues like combating high prices, down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers, tax cuts for small businesses, and lower capital gains tax rates (28% vs. Biden’s proposed 39%).

One of Trump’s key reasons for selecting J.D. Vance as his running mate was likely to ensure that the economic message in swing states would resonate. Vance’s criticism of Harris’s economic policies and her association with Biden’s administration appears aimed at countering Harris’s attempts to differentiate herself from Biden. Trump and Vance are focusing on protecting American workers by limiting immigration, sending a strong message on these key issues. Harris is aware that Biden’s progressive economic policies have political costs, so she is taking steps to address them. Trump’s messages about undermining democracy and restricting reproductive rights are expected to mobilize Democratic voters, but for independent voters, Harris needs to counter Trump’s advantage with clear messaging on the economy and immigration.

The upcoming debate between Harris and Trump next week could impact swing state trends if either candidate makes critical mistakes, but the potential for a complete turnaround seems limited. Biden’s poor performance in the June debate, which led to questions about his age and mental capacity, triggered discussions about his withdrawal from the race. A similar surprise is not expected for the Harris-Trump debate on September 10, as both candidates are likely to stick to their well-known strategies. However, while they will try to persuade the national electorate, they will need to clearly address issues prominent in swing states. It remains to be seen whether Harris will take bold steps on economic and immigration issues where Trump is strong, but simply focusing on democracy and reproductive rights may not be sufficient.

One of the key functions of U.S. presidential debates is to provide material that rivals can use against each other later. Trump has been effective at turning opponents' weak moments, gaffes, and mistakes into major attacks. However, Trump has struggled to brand Harris personally since she became the nominee. His comments about Harris’s racial identity backfired, and efforts to portray her as a radical leftist have not been very effective. In the September 10 debate, Trump will likely seek to brand Harris and find a memorable nickname, but personal attacks might backfire given that Harris is a woman. We can expect Trump to focus on reinforcing his advantages in the economy and immigration, while Harris will aim to distance herself from Biden and gain ground on these issues.