Macron's China trip and strategic autonomy

French President Emmanuel Macron's statements after his visit to China, where he was received with state ceremonies, regarding Europe's need to reduce its dependency on the U.S. and not take sides in a conflict between China and the U.S. over Taiwan, has caused a stir in Washington. Macron's assertion that Europe needs to gain "strategic autonomy" and that the greatest risk in achieving this is "getting involved in crises that do not belong to us" has been interpreted as a disagreement between France and the U.S. on the issue of Taiwan. While it is difficult to say that the concept of strategic autonomy has broad support throughout Europe, it is clear that the U.S.-Europe alliance is not on the same page. Although the Biden administration has managed to keep the transatlantic alliance together on the issue of Ukraine, it will be much more difficult to maintain the same unity in the event of a possible invasion of Taiwan.

French President Emmanuel Macron's statements that Europe should not be a "follower" of the U.S. on the Taiwan issue, coupled with his close photos with Chinese leader Xi and his failure to criticize China on any issue, also sparked criticism. China's decision to launch a large-scale "encirclement of Taiwan" exercise a few hours after Macron's departure, which included military scenarios that involved striking the island, was one of the factors that fueled the backlash against the French President. The fact that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also visited China at the same time as Macron was seen as a "sign of weakness" by former UK President Liz Truss. It could be argued that the current visit of these two European leaders to China is an effort to avoid taking sides in the competition between the U.S. and China.

China's frequent reference to Europe's strategic autonomy is seen as an attempt to create divisions within the Transatlantic alliance. By passively supporting Russia on the Ukraine issue, China is trying to align with European leaders like Macron and isolate the U.S., particularly on the issue of Taiwan. Meanwhile, Washington's insistence on increasing Europe's defense capabilities while also being uncomfortable with Macron's statements signals a lack of consensus on the grand strategy of the Western alliance. Although Macron has talked about Europe's strategic autonomy or creating its own army without Germany, there is still no clear agreement on the U.S. convincing Europe on the China issue.

The Biden administration believes that strengthening the Western alliance, along with its Asian allies, which accounts for 60% of world trade, is the only solution to counter China. However, this does not seem to be gaining traction in Europe as neither France nor Germany wants to engage in a new cold war with China. After Biden became president, he had a harder time convincing Europe on the Huawei issue than he had anticipated. The Biden administration initially had difficulty convincing European allies to isolate Russia after its invasion attempt on Ukraine, but they managed to send a warning message to China on Taiwan through support to Ukraine. Nevertheless, China's careful handling of its relationship with Russia and even moving towards arms supplies indicates that things are not going as Washington had hoped.

Macron's recent conciliatory tone towards China, coupled with Europe's complaints of dependency on the U.S. for weapons and energy, and their repeated criticisms of the global dominance of the U.S. dollar, are all noteworthy. Macron's warning that Europe cannot maintain its strategic autonomy and will become a vassal state in the event of a possible conflict over Taiwan, raises questions about what kind of autonomy he seeks from the U.S., which currently guarantees Europe's security. However, Macron's recent statements, including his criticism of NATO, have not been fully backed up.

Macron's attempt to lead a coalition to exclude Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean was unsuccessful, and he has experienced a political crisis over retirement age that has caused a significant drop in his approval ratings. Despite this, Macron is not alone in his efforts to push for a stronger stance against China, and he represents a voice within Europe that shares the U.S.'s appetite for combatting China.

Although the Biden administration tried to placate Macron by inviting France to join the AUKUS alliance, the lack of unity among Western powers on a grand strategy is evident. Macron's recent visit to China, accompanied by a large delegation of businessmen, demonstrates that European leaders are hesitant to sacrifice their economic ties with China over the Taiwan issue. It will be challenging for the U..S to convince its allies to abandon their economic relationship with China, which will undoubtedly play a crucial role in any potential military intervention in Taiwan.

Therefore, it will be difficult for Washington to confront China without Europe's full support, and the transatlantic relationship may be weaker than previously anticipated. The fact that Macron and other European leaders have not fully embraced the U.S.'s more confrontational approach to China underscores the need for a more cohesive Western strategy in response to China's growing influence.