Do hurricanes count as an October Surprise?

In U.S. law, elections are held on the "first Tuesday following the first Monday in November," and major events occurring shortly before an election, with significant potential to sway its outcome, are known as "October surprises." The American public is familiar with such developments, which can range from national security issues involving war and peace to scandals concerning candidates' personal lives. Campaign teams often withhold damaging information about their opponents until October, ensuring that there's little time for recovery before the election.

The recent focus on hurricane season in American politics reminds us that natural disasters can also serve as October surprises. This year, with Hurricane Milton following closely after Hurricane Helene, both parties—Republicans and Democrats—are taking the potential political fallout seriously. The severity of these storms has made federal involvement, particularly through FEMA, crucial. President Biden’s swift declaration of emergency before Milton hit Florida highlights the political stakes.

In contrast, former President Trump has criticized the federal response and even floated conspiracy theories about FEMA’s aid distribution, showing his intent to leverage the hurricanes as October surprises. Claims that the Biden administration is favoring migrants over U.S. citizens in its relief efforts have gained traction, while some Republican figures have even promoted the fantastical idea that Democrats control weather events.

Both parties are attempting to use the hurricanes to their advantage, with Republicans accusing the administration of discriminatory aid distribution and Democrats emphasizing their full mobilization of resources. There are precedents for positive impacts from natural disaster responses, such as President Obama’s effective handling of Hurricane Sandy in 2012, which was seen as a boost to his reelection campaign.

This political battle mirrors past October surprises, like the twin shocks of the 2016 campaign: Trump’s infamous “Access Hollywood” tapes and the FBI’s late-stage announcement about the ongoing investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails. Both events shifted the political landscape in unexpected ways.

As election day approaches, the impact of natural disasters, or perhaps other unforeseen events like a potential Israeli strike on Iran, could still shape the final stretch of the campaign. With the race heating up, more October surprises may be on the horizon.