It's dinner time. Only three weeks until Turkey's day of judgment in the European Union and bells have been ringing in every European capital. As at weddings, whoever has an objection to Turkey’s membership must speak up now, because it will be too late afterwards. So too for grumbling.

I know there are many in Turkey who feel awkward when they hear criticisms from different corners directed at Turkey’s performance in sundry matters; some even have a tendency towards saying "enough is enough" and defend putting an end to Turkey’s EU prospects. The Turkish public, which has so far strongly supported the country’s EU membership, has started running out of patience. This is evident in opinion polls which show a rapid erosion of public support on the matter.

I never take any notice of those Euroskeptics who miss no chance to interpret every unusual new development or strangely worded utterances by European leaders as ominous indicators of outright rejection. I don't even trust our own politicians who would like to depict things negatively when the reality is quite the contrary so that they can reap the benefits by turning events to their favor.

So, why am I uncomfortable this time? The reason for my discomfort are statements made by Abdullah Gul, foreign minister and deputy prime minister in the ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party government. When I see him losing his temper, issuing threats, or allaying the fears and trepidation of the public, I become cautious.

The same week when European ministers started making a fuss over some minor issues concerning Turkey’s proposed membership, Abdullah Gul’s warnings were published in The Economist, the British newsweekly, to the effect that Turkey would walk away for good if the EU proposes anything short of full membership or dares to put any new conditions. This was no threat, this was a serious warning.

I knew Abdullah Gul long before he entered politics. In fact my friendship with him is longer than any other in the Turkish political sphere. I've known him for almost 40 years. We worked shoulder to shoulder as young leaders in a conservative student union and shared an apartment in London when we were graduate students. He moved to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia to work as a consultant at the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) and I visited him there. When he decided to enter politics I strongly encouraged him. We've never lost touch at any time over the last 40 years.

If this background makes my testimony credible, I can tell you with ease that he's not bluffing. He seems to be at the end of his tether. Of course, he's familiar with the backdoor maneuvers of European politicians, their last-minute bargaining, and their insatiable appetite for a slice of the cake even when there's none left. Nevertheless Mr. Gul doesn't seem to be happy about the reception he's encountered. The interview in The Economist was published the same day as he went to Newport in Wales to meet with his counterparts from European countries, but those words were uttered at least five days before. He meant what he said with his unprovoked, fine-tuned statement.

This is ominous.

To couple Mr. Gul’s harsh words, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also issued dire warnings. The two seem to be testing the water and preparing the public for the worst. If anything wrong happens, i.e. the EU postpones the start date for negotiations or pushes hard to extract new concessions from Turkey at the last moment, I believe Turkey is ready to turn its back and walk away. In this country everybody believes that Turkey has fulfilled its part of the bargain and has every right to start negotiations with the EU straightaway.

We know why we're here of course. The key issue is Cyprus. Even if I find it understandable for the Greek "Republic of Cyprus" to demand official recognition from Turkey before Ankara starts negotiating with the EU, this isn't in the cards as long as the Cyprus issue has not reached a just and workable settlement. Insistence on obtaining official recognition now could trigger Turkey’s withdrawal from its EU vocation and this would make the island of Cyprus remain eternally divided. The last-minute bickering on the Cyprus issue is totally counterproductive for the Greek Cypriots.

Any open-minded politician can see the light when they start looking at the Cyprus issue with a mind to solve it. The way to find a solution is apparent: Accept Turkey into the European fold and urge both sides to create a mutually beneficial environment. The Turks and Greeks of Cyprus could better develop their own state together if Turkey enters the EU.

With only three weeks until Turkey's day of judgment, the EU has been giving conflicting signals. I hope this confusion ends before dinner time. Otherwise the seat reserved for the guest will stay vacant, I'm afraid.

You now know who's coming to dinner.

From The New Anatolian, September 06, 2005

 

Conspiracy theory - August 30, 2005 Finding unity in diversity - August 23, 2005 What's in a name? - August 16, 2005 Alive, well, and kicking - July 26, 2005 To be or not to be - July 19, 2005 It's a mad, mad, mad world - July 12, 2005 Politically correct, Turkish style - July 5, 2005 Non-fiction vs. Fiction - June 28, 2005 Out of sync, out of place - June 21, 2005 My mind's still numb - June 14, 2005 Mr. Erdogan is in Washington - June 7, 2005 I'm innocent - May 31, 2005 Humiliation: Today for me, tomorrow for you - May 24, 2005 If only we had dialogue - May 17, 2005 From Cairo with love - May 10, 2005 Eyeless in Gaza - May 3, 2005 A partner is still needed in Cyprus - April 26, 2005 'My name is State, Deep State' - April 19, 2005 Greed kills - April 12, 2005 From the observation deck - April 5, 2005 The mirror has cracked - March 29, 2005 Remembering things past - March 22, 2005 I invite you to use your imagination - March 15, 2005 A time for encouragement - March 8, 2005 The proof in the pudding - March 1, 2005 Hail to the Columnist! - February 22, 2005 It is in our blood, we do not waver - February 15, 2005 Excuse my question - February 8, 2005 A friend in need - February 1, 2005

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