Danish politics in crisis ahead of election

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has called for early general elections on Nov. 1 in the wake of a scandal concerning the slaughter of 17 million minks in 2020.

Frederiksen’s announcement has been expected for months after opposition parties accused her of breaking the law when a decision was made to kill the minks due to fears that the coronavirus would spread in farms.

Traditionally, 10 political parties will compete but 14 parties will be running this year in hopes of securing 179 seats in the Danish parliament, or the Riksdag.

It is a result of some parties facing dramatic confrontations and deep crises that have led to a complete disintegration within the Danish People’s Party, Left Party, Alternative Party and Liberal Party.

The ground was fertilized for new parties to emerge which can become crucial when it comes to elections.

According to Kasper Moller Hansen, a political science professor at Copenhagen University, Danish politics are no longer reduced to simply a “Red and Blue block.”

The race is currently “really tight,” he told Anadolu Agency, as recent polls show Social Democrats, together with other left parties, have 50% support.

Equally, right-wing parties have around 50%, hence he said: “It's very difficult to tell who's going to be prime minister at the moment because it's so close and the polls tend to switch back and forth.”

- New parties ‘play a big role’

New parties “play a big role” when it comes to elections, he said.

Former Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, with his new Moderates party, “could be deciding the election result” depending on which block he decides to join, said Elisabet Svane, political analyst at Politiken, the country’s largest newspaper.

A TV2 poll suggests that Rasmussen’s party is currently polling at 6.5% while 11% of Danes would like to see him serve a third term.

Essentially, he could become prime minister if Frederiksen is unable to form a majority and if “he (Rasmussen) joins the Blue block,” said Hansen.

But again, “it will be up to negotiations” as “we don't vote directly for the prime minister. We vote for the parliament” and lawmakers will decide who should be prime minister, he added.

- Immigration no longer dominating campaign

The election stands out as a “record high number of voters” have changed positions about who to vote for and immigration does not seem to be dominating campaigns this time around, according to Hansen.

The focus seems to have shifted toward the energy crisis, inflation and food crisis that has “risen drastically in Denmark,” he said.

Hansen argued that the only reason immigration is not playing a big role is that most parties “agree” on a hardline approach when it comes to immigrants.

This was evident in the first televised debate when all parties on the left and the right backed a controversial plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda.

Denmark approved legislation that would make that possible last year and this summer the Danish and Rwandan governments decided to explore the possibility of asylum seekers who arrive in Denmark being sent to Rwanda.

- Far-right losing support

The far-right anti-immigrant Danish People’s Party currently has just 2% - 3% support, according to Hansen. That is a drastic drop from the 2015 election when it won second place with 21.08% of the national vote, securing 37 seats in parliament.

This time, the anti-immigrant rhetoric from the party did not convince voters, according to Hansen.

Svane agrees that immigration will not be “on the top of mind of most voters” as the economy is not doing very well,” and this election “we are talking about money,” she said.

The left-wing Red Block, headed by Frederiksen, is sticking to its traditional arguments for a stronger welfare state, especially when it comes to “the nurses’ salary, that has been a big deal in the campaign so far,” pledging to give “more salary” to nurses and hospital workers in general, said Hansen.

He said there is “little” focus on climate change within the block.

When it comes to the Liberals and the Conservatives, the Conservatives are promising to “lower taxes,” while the Liberals have tried to play “more kind of in the middle where they are trying to move votes across the middle,” said Hansen.

He said parties do not seem to have a clear agenda and that they keep changing it, hence “many voters” are changing parties or are unsure who to support.

Svane argued that the election is about “trust” and “you can say half of the population, they trust the current prime minister, Mrs. Frederiksen, while the right-wing people, they distrust her.”

Frederiksen is trying to convince voters by reminding them that she successfully navigated the coronavirus pandemic and is in a position to properly manage inflation, the energy crisis and the “Ukrainian crisis and security situation with Russia,” added Hansen.

- Who will form government with whom?

Hansen predicts if the Blue block wins, the Moderates, Conservatives and Liberals are likely to form a traditional Liberal-Conservative Blue bloc that is likely to include Rasmussen who will have “some important ministry to take care of.”

If, however, the Red block secures most of the votes, the ruling Social Democrats will form a coalition with the Social Liberal party and the Socialist Democratic party which would ensure a center-left government, said Hansen.

He said despite the two likely combinations, things could still “play out very differently when we see election results” as polls are too close to make definitive predictions.

Regardless of who wins the majority, politics in Denmark will stay the same as parties tend to form a “grand coalition when it comes to any major legislation,” said Hansen.

“So even though if we see a new government, a new prime minister, the politics will very much stay the same,” he said.

Svane said in the last 20 years it was always evident during campaigning that the Red or Blue block would win the elections and who would be in a coalition with whom.

This time, she said, “we don’t know” as the current government headed by Frederiksen “goes for a broader government as she even invites the Blue parties into it.”

“So, really the game is open, it's totally open,” she added.