U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has held talks with nearly twenty of his counterparts since taking office. The meetings began with countries surrounding China, continued with Israel, and included two Gulf nations: the UAE and Saudi Arabia. From Europe, only Poland made the list, along with Türkiye.
After January 20, several foreign ministers from our region also scheduled meetings with Rubio, though these have yet to take place. This is why Rubio’s meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stood out. Those still waiting for a call from Rubio are curious about how this meeting came about. From what I understand, it was Washington that initiated the call. But what’s more important than who called whom is what this chain of meetings reveals about the new foreign policy priorities of the U.S.
A Twist of Fate for the Germans
Signs are emerging about what President Trump plans to do on three key fronts. The first is his EU policy, which is designed to dismantle the European Union’s vision and aspirations. Trump wants to see anti-immigrant, far-right actors rise to power across Europe, weakening the EU’s unity and aligning with his own anti-immigrant stance. Elon Musk’s direct intervention in German elections, supporting the far-right AfD party, can only be read in this light. Musk also sent a provocative message to Germans, saying, “Don’t focus too much on past guilt (the Holocaust).” It’s a twist of fate for the Germans, who for years have tried to influence Turkish politics through foundations and similar tools.
Speaking Israel’s Language
The second front is Israel. Israel’s goal is the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank (they’ve even proposed setting up camps in the Sinai), the elimination of the two-state solution, and the annexation of Palestinian territories. Trump made it clear he’s on the same page as Israel, telling Jordan and Egypt to “take in the Palestinians.”
Trump aims to help Israel achieve its goals while reviving his earlier proposal for a Riyadh-Tel Aviv-centered, anti-Iran global alliance—this time in a format suited to the current geopolitical climate. He also wants to reduce U.S. involvement in the region. This is why he announced his first overseas trip would be to Saudi Arabia, in exchange for a $1 trillion investment. He sees a new Syria as part of this equation (Ankara supports Riyadh’s efforts to improve relations with Damascus, albeit for different reasons). Trump views Türkiye as the patron of Syria and, within this framework, likely expects Ankara not to disrupt his plans.
The PKK Terrorist Organization in Israel’s Lap
However, this doesn’t mean Trump will align with Tel Aviv on every issue in the region. The third front is Syria. Israel wants the U.S. to remain in Syria and for the country to be divided into four cantons: a northern canton controlled by the PKK terrorist organization and southern cantons dominated by U.S.-backed groups. Foreign Minister Fidan’s recent statement to Saudi media is significant: “There are groups with over 80,000 armed elements (close to Türkiye). We told them to join the national army. We hope the same happens with the groups in the south.” The figure of 80,000 is being mentioned for the first time and serves as a warning.
Israel is also telling the PKK terrorist organization to “lay down arms in Syria.” Israeli Foreign Minister Saar reportedly “assured” SDF/PKK terrorist organization leader Ilham Ahmed on January 4. The SDF, the Syrian branch of the PKK terrorist organization, rejected Damascus’s offer to “lay down arms and become part of Syria.” SDF leader Mazlum Abdi, aka Ferhat Abdi Şahin, called for an international investigation into those displaced from Afrin, saying, “We want the NSA (National Syrian Army) to be punished.”
The PKK terrorist organization is in Israel’s lap. The call for an international investigation comes straight from Israel’s playbook, and the focus on the NSA is clearly aimed at Türkiye. Israel wants to make Türkiye pay for its stance against genocide by using the PKK terrorist organization as a proxy.
However, Trump’s appointment of Michael Dimino, who advocates for reducing U.S. military presence in Iraq and Syria, as Deputy Undersecretary for Middle East policy at the Pentagon, is a signal Israel won’t like.
What Did Fidan Discuss in Baghdad and Kalın in Damascus?
Foreign Minister Fidan spoke openly for the first time about terrorist leader Şahin, calling him “the head of a subordinate branch of the PKK terrorist organization.” He added, “Above him are Sabri Ok and Fehman Hüseyin. It’s impossible for him to make decisions without their approval.”
These remarks coincided with discussions about the second visit by a delegation from the DEM party to İmralı. It was expected that İmralı would issue a call during this second visit, but it didn’t. This suggests a wait-and-see approach. Ultimately, Kandil does not want its Syrian branch, the SDF, to lay down arms.
In response, Syrian leader Ahmed Şara stated, “The SDF must surrender its weapons.” Turkish Ministry of Defense sources announced, “Our troops in Syria may be reassigned to different regions.”
During this process, two important visits took place simultaneously: Foreign Minister Fidan went to Baghdad, while MIT Chief İbrahim Kalın visited Damascus. Fidan’s visit focused on cooperation against the SDF, the Syrian branch of the PKK terrorist organization (including designating the PKK as a terrorist organization and addressing its presence in Sinjar) and the future of ISIS camps in Syria. Kalın’s visit to Damascus is believed to have centered on the SDF. These diplomatic and intelligence contacts are expected to soon be followed by increased military coordination. The final showdown is approaching.
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