Indonesia-Australia defense pact: What does it mean for regional rivalries?

Indonesia and Australia have drawn global attention by declaring their intent to sign a “very significant” defense agreement in the coming months.

Experts believe the deal will be “crucial” in Canberra's engagement with the wider Southeast Asia region, particularly amid the festering maritime disputes around the South China Sea.

No details have been released about the agreement, which could take a few months to materialize, while Indonesia moves to new era under a new president from October.

Analysts believe the pact would be “especially important in the maritime domain,” given the adjacent maritime borders, exclusive economic zones, and search and rescue zones of the two nations.

The security relationship between the two nations is based on the 2006 Framework for Security Cooperation, also known as the Lombok Treaty, and the 2012 Defense Cooperation Agreement.

In 2018, the two countries elevated their relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement.

“The new, upgraded Defense Cooperation Agreement will be a welcome addition to these existing arrangements,” David Andrews, a senior policy adviser at the Australian National University's National Security College, told Anadolu.

“But the fundamentals of the agreement are already in place.”

- What to expect in the defense pact

The announcement about the defense pact came when Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles met his counterpart Prabowo Subianto in Indonesia last week.

Prabowo is expected to become Indonesia's president in October as preliminary results of the Feb. 14 elections showed he was leading with over 55% of the vote.

The proposed agreement “aims to upgrade” the existing Defense Cooperation Agreement, according to Andrews.

He said Canberra wants the pact to “support increased dialogue and improved interoperability between the two militaries.”

That could include “mutual access to training ranges and expedited entry and exit processes for military personnel conducting exercises in the other country,” he added.

The potential scope of the pact is “very broad, given the very substantial defense relationship between Australia and Indonesia,” he said.

Andrews clarified that the agreement “will not be an alliance or mutual defense treaty,” stressing that the focus “would be purely on streamlining interactions between the two militaries, not establishing security guarantees.”

While it may strengthen the bilateral relations, “it is unlikely to be wholly transformational,” he added.

“To be clear … this agreement is not an alliance and we should be careful not to exaggerate the significance of what is a fairly common bilateral undertaking,” he said.

- Engaging ASEAN

Jingdong Yuan from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) told Anadolu there have been expert views that Australia has not “paid sufficient attention to this vital relationship” with Southeast Asia.

Canberra has “largely been ‘out of the region' in either working closely with the US or being overly preoccupied with developments in the South China Sea, cross-(Taiwan) Strait relations, and US-China rivalry,” said Yuan, the director of SIPRI's China and Asia Security Program.

He pointed out that one “important aspect of Australia's security should be to work” with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as well its northern Pacific Island neighbors.

Indonesia is one of 10 members of the ASEAN and shares maritime borders with China, which has disputes with several regional nations over the mineral-rich South China Sea.

According to Yuan, Australia's Labor government has “only begun to address this (security) concern, but clearly more needs to be done.”

“The very fact that a defense pact is to be signed is a major development of political significance — that Canberra is taking note that engagement of ASEAN is crucial,” Yuan stressed.

- ‘Indonesia not taking sides'

Analysts based in Beijing believe Indonesia is “not interested in taking sides” in the fast-changing geopolitical environment in Asia-Pacific.

Jakarta “wants good regional and international relations,” Einar Tangen, a known face in Beijing who comments on Asian affairs, told Anadolu.

Observers sitting in Beijing do follow such developments keenly since Australia is a long-time ally of the US, hosts American troops, is part of the US-led Quad security alliance and will secure nuclear-powered submarines through Washington and the UK under the AUKUS pact.

“Jakarta's primary interests are economic development and peaceful regional coexistence,” said Einar.

Indonesia remains “well aware that where Washington goes, conflict follows,” he said, stressing that “balancing China and Australia on issues of economy and security are … not mutually exclusive.”

“The reality is that Australia is a neighbor, its close relations with the US are not seen as an impediment to maintaining cordial relations, in terms of economics and security,” he explained.

- Dispute in South China Sea

Einar, who is a senior fellow at the Beijing-based Taihe Institute, said the larger issue is that of maritime borders.

It “is the South China Sea issue between ASEAN members, Taiwan and mainland China,” he said.

Beijing claims vast maritime territory in South China Sea under its so-called nine-dash line, which The Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration said in 2016 has no legal basis under international law.

China says the ruling is not valid and has been in negotiations with ASEAN since 2001 for a code of conduct for the disputed sea.

In an apparent move to avoid irking Beijing, Indonesia, which was the ASEAN chair last year, had moved the bloc's first naval exercises away from the disputed sea to its southern Natuna Islands in September.

However, China's relations with the Philippines have recently spiraled over their maritime disputes, and the US has increased its military footprint there, getting access to four more military bases.

Einar stressed that Beijing “needs to be creative and timely … to counter Washington's efforts to exploit” the South China Sea issue.

A consensus solution among all claimants in the South China Sea “would effectively block US efforts to use this as a divisive issue,” he said.