The F-16 issue and the mutual trust problem

After Sweden's NATO membership was approved in the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM), reports emerged that President Biden sent a letter to Congress seeking approval for the sale of F-16s. These developments indicate that we are nearing the conclusion of the long-debated F-16 issue. If the sale goes through, it could somewhat alleviate the deep-seated distrust that has plagued Turkish-American relations for some time. This distrust has made what should have been a routine arms deal between two NATO allies such a contentious process. Overcoming this hurdle would be beneficial for both countries, but it's still too early to declare the start of a new era. The potential sale of F-16s could pave the way for a new chapter by reducing mutual distrust.

SANCTIONS

Türkiye's purchase of the S-400 from Russia led to its removal from the F-35 program and sanctions imposed under the CAATSA (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) during the Trump administration. Despite these sanctions, which primarily targeted Russia, Türkiye managed to maintain some level of engagement with the West. However, these measures also prompted Türkiye to enhance its self-reliance in defense capabilities, albeit slowing down its defense acquisitions from Western countries.

The removal of Türkiye from the F-35 program and the subsequent sanctions have been among the most significant sources of tension in Turkish-American relations, compounded by their diverging interests in Syria. While President Trump expressed a desire to withdraw completely from Syria, Congress strongly opposed this, advocating for continued support to Kurdish forces. Despite occasional acknowledgments of Türkiye's concerns by Trump, American policy remained steadfast, prolonging the discord between the two countries.

The request for F-16 sales has the potential to recalibrate Turkish-American relations. It signals a willingness to sustain the long-standing defense ties between the two countries. Amid speculations about Türkiye's growing proximity to Russia and its alleged drift from the West, the request for F-16 sales sends a contrary message, bolstering NATO capabilities. This underscores the importance of maintaining Türkiye's F-16 fleet, a cornerstone of NATO's strength, and dispels notions of Türkiye's departure from the Western alliance.

CONGRESS

Nevertheless, the U.S. Congress continued to pose challenges for Türkiye. Senator Menendez, as Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, sought assurances, particularly concerning Greece, in exchange for approving F-16 sales. Despite Menendez's known anti-Türkiye stance, his removal from office following a corruption scandal paved the way for more reasonable yet still critical voices against Türkiye. Convincing senators required political risks from the White House, yet the Biden administration seemed reluctant to engage in such bargaining with Congress.

In this context, Finland's and Sweden's NATO membership became leverage for Türkiye. It was the U.S. Congress, not Türkiye, that linked NATO expansion to F-16 sales. Senators wrote to Biden, stating they would not approve F-16 sales unless Finland and Sweden joined NATO, further complicating Türkiye's path. The approval of these countries' memberships without any tangible benefits left Türkiye with no strategic advantage. Now, it's imperative for the Biden administration to intervene and finalize the sale; otherwise, the trust deficit between the two allies could become irreparable.

Beyond the F-16 issue, the continuation of U.S. support for the YPG/PKK in Syria remains the most challenging obstacle to overcome in bilateral relations. This ongoing support for YPG/PKK militants has severely undermined mutual trust. Türkiye has pursued diplomatic efforts patiently, hoping for a resolution. Considering America's history of abandoning allies and disengaging from overseas commitments, there may come a point where it reconsiders its support for the YPG. Türkiye can capitalize on this shift in U.S. policy to overcome the trust deficit and advance bilateral relations. If the U.S. ends its support for the YPG, it would mark a significant step towards restoring trust in Turkish-American relations.