Similar to Gaza War, international system exhibits lack of urgency to end Russia-Ukraine war, Hakan Fidan tells Anadolu's Editor's Desk
A new ongoing "cold war" led by the West and Russia will intensify as it transitions into a fresh phase, Türkiye's foreign minister warned on Thursday.
“The Cold War, which began with the West and Russia and the alliances that Russia formed as a central hub, will deepen and evolve into a different dimension,” Hakan Fidan said in an interview with Anadolu's Editor's Desk.
On the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Fidan highlighted Ankara's role as a mediator, stressing that this was a priority for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Fidan stated that "a lot has been done in practice" on this issue, emphasizing that there have been "very high-quality" meetings facilitated by Türkiye's National Intelligence Organization (MIT) related to draft agreements on energy and food security, particularly through intelligence diplomacy.
He highlighted that while the parties have not always been able to meet "in the same way, in the same place," efforts are ongoing.
Fidan added that if issues related to food security and energy are resolved, attention should be focused on the question of what would happen in the "larger conflict."
Allowing that there could be "some easing" in the conflict, he said it was starting to take on "increasingly different forms.
"As we mentioned from the start, if a conflict similar to the one in Gaza begins and you do not demonstrate a willingness to stop it, you may not have clear opinions on how it will evolve and it could spiral out of control."
Fidan underlined that the Ukraine war was currently being "brought into" Russia, noting that over 500,000 people have lost their lives and that the situation resembled World Wars I and II.
He stated that both sides were struggling to keep up with munitions production and drew attention to the damage inflicted on people and urban infrastructure by the attacks.
Dubbing the situation a "very painful picture," Fidan said: "What's even stranger is that, similar to the Gaza War, the international system does not seem to be experiencing a sense of urgency here.”
"There should be consequences for the fact that hundreds of thousands of people are dying. People should be concerned about this.
"Of course, one side is under occupation and is fighting against it, but this situation has now gone far beyond that. It is dividing the world in half and poses an increasing risk of spreading further," he warned.
Fidan asserted that Washington is leading Europe and that everyone is waiting for how the US presidential election to be held in November will unfold.
He pointed to the possibility of "negotiation and dialogue" after the election concludes, highlighting that the Russia-Ukraine war has been ongoing for nearly three years and that the situation had become one in which neither side could gain through conflict
The situation is now approaching a "saturation" point, Fidan said, adding that the parties could leverage "unused capabilities" and "untargeted objectives."
He indicated that a dialogue mechanism could begin after the US elections, while also noting that there some steps and meetings needed to take place beforehand.
Another key parameter in the war in Ukraine is the sanctions imposed by the West on Russia, he underscored.
"These sanctions will certainly come to the table as part of a large package. We will see how all of this will be negotiated. If negotiations fail, the situation could either escalate into a wider conflict or become a frozen war," Fidan said.
"Currently, markets, strategists, and security mechanisms reflexively consider the ongoing war to be temporary. We see that in the coming months, this could have permanent effects. Because when you account for lasting impacts, you need to invest significant financial resources and make political decisions regarding the measures we will take," he added.
Fidan noted that if events take an unexpected turn, resources spent and positions taken so far could go to waste.
"If the scenario unfolds as you expect and you have not taken measures, you will lose time. Therefore, international actors are experiencing uncertainty at this point," he said.
He pointed out that trade routes have been disrupted, emphasizing that the Russia-Ukraine war was not merely a hot conflict occurring in Ukraine; it has significant global implications."
"There are different geopolitical calculations by the parties that see no issue in continuing the war," he said, adding that there were some countries that benefit from the current situation.
Expressing concern over the shifting nature of the conflict, Fidan said the "ring," long confined to Ukraine's borders, was changing.
As this change occurs, he said Russia is now developing nuclear strategies, whereas the arms used in the war had been limited to those used in conventional warfare.
- Organization of Turkic States
Fidan also talked about a recent visit he paid to Central Asia, highlighting President Erdogan's strong commitment to advancing institutional ties with the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) and its members.
"In addition to our kinship, we share a sense of solidarity. What does that feeling mean? Let's come together, be strong, unite, be effective, and become more deterrent," Fidan said, emphasizing that the Turkic world has been a subject he has closely followed since his time as head of the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA), Türkiye's state aid agency.
He noted that once these sentiments are established, practical matters like institutionalization could begin, underlining the importance of focusing on paths to institutionalization in economic and security cooperation.
Fidan emphasized the importance of the EU recognizing the significant attention that Russia and Asia-Pacific countries are giving to Central Asia.
"With such interest, it is crucial for Türkiye to advance both bilateral relations and institutional ties, particularly through the framework of the OTS," he added.
He also pointed out that there are specific areas where true partnerships can be formed.
"There are certain areas where you can be absolutely certain, where you can forge paths in partnership with your brothers and friends. These include security, defense, and critical intelligence matters," he said, emphasizing that these topics should be prioritized and made central to the agenda, highlighting their importance in fostering cooperation.
Comparing Türkiye to other Turkic states, he said it is a major economic and technological hub and wanted to share this capacity with fellow OTS members.
- Türkiye's role in Balkans
Pivoting to tensions between Serbia and Kosovo, Fidan stated Türkiye is "playing an extraordinary role" in trying to ease them.
He pointed out the impact of President Erdogan's political leadership in the region, as well as Türkiye's historical support for the independence, sovereignty, and security of both Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
"Türkiye presents the profile of a mature state that recognizes the interests of Serbia in certain areas. We can discuss these interests as long as there are no issues regarding the independence of Bosnia and Kosovo," he said, stressing that building good relations with Serbia is only possible through "strong political leadership."
Noting that Serbia's President Aleksandar Vucic trusts Erdogan in this context, Fidan said the Turkish leader possesses a vision for how to ensure "peace and stability in the Balkans" with historical responsibilities.
"If you pay attention, whether it is Syria, Iraq, the Balkans, the Black Sea, or the Middle East, we always use a language of active peace," he said, explaining that this referred to making "sincere efforts to resolve or freeze these conflicts with valid reasons and turn them into peace."
Stressing that these efforts arise from understanding the issues and actors involved, continuous collection of information, and maintaining interaction, he underscored Ankara's reliability in these matters.
"The cessation of conflicts in our region is a key to the prosperity and security that Türkiye and its allies will create in the coming centuries," the Turkish foreign minister said.
Pointing out that despite the destabilization of the region following the US' 2003 invasion of Iraq, he said Türkiye has continued on a stable path.
"It is truly remarkable that Türkiye has managed to remain stable and secure in this region, continuously improving its economy and security during this time. We need to maintain this professionalism and focus," Fidan said.
