'Everyone who doesn't fall in line with the far-right extremist government, has basically been sacked, ousted,' in what has led to the 'worst crisis in civil-military relations,' says analyst Andreas Krieg
Amid escalating political unrest in Israel, emerging reports of potential military rule in Gaza have sparked widespread concern, particularly amid dramatic changes unfolding in Israeli domestic politics.
Recent actions, such as the dismissal of key security and legal officials, along with new military appointments, have cast uncertainty over Israel's security policies both domestically and in the occupied territories.
Experts warn these developments are symptomatic of an intensifying crisis in Israeli civil-military relations, potentially setting the stage for prolonged occupation and raising fears of ethnic cleansing targeting Palestinians in Gaza.
Analysts interpret the turmoil as indicative of a larger ideological struggle within Israel.
“If you zoom out, what you see in Israel is a struggle between liberal forces and conservative, more traditional, far-right force,” observed Ahron Bregman, a former Israeli army official and political scientist. “This could easily deteriorate into an all-out civil war in Israel. (Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu, instead of trying to bring the nation together, seems to thrive on the divisions, even encouraging it.”
- Concerns over military rule in Gaza
This week, Israeli media reported scheduled meetings between Israeli officials and US counterparts in Washington, specifically to discuss the possibility of imposing military control over Gaza.
“Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners, (Finance Minister Bezalel) Smotrich and (National Security Minister Itamar) Ben-Gvir and others, want to see a military government in Gaza as they believe ... that military rule in Gaza is a step closer to resettling the strip,” analyst Bregman told Anadolu.
Conversely, geopolitical risk analyst Andreas Krieg pointed out that Israel's military intelligence bodies, including the Shin Bet domestic security agency, and the army have generally recommended against reoccupying Gaza. Krieg explained this caution reflects concerns that such an action would expose the army to heightened risks.
“They're already failing to occupy the West Bank, and so it will be even more difficult to do it in Gaza,” explained Krieg, an associate professor at King's College London's School of Security Studies.
Krieg described a growing divide between the security establishment and Netanyahu's administration, specifically on Gaza's future.
“It's not just Netanyahu, obviously, (it's also) people like Smotrich and Ben who also want to reoccupy the Gaza Strip, who want to annex the territory and who also want to advance the policy of ethnic cleansing,” he said.
Krieg argued that the Israeli army is resisting such measures but is currently being manipulated as Netanyahu hesitates to approve subsequent phases of military action.
- Leadership changes and strategic shifts in the Israeli army
The Israeli military recently experienced significant shifts in leadership, most notably in February with the appointment of Maj. Gen. Eyal Zamir as the new chief of staff, following the resignation of Gen. Herzi Halevi. Halevi stepped down due to backlash over operational failures related to attacks by Palestinian group Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023.
Bregman highlighted that the change in leadership has notably altered military strategies in Gaza.
“The IDF's (Israeli army's) tactics in Gaza have changed with the arrival of a new chief of staff,” Bregman said. “Under the previous Chief of Staff, the forces would go in and out of Gaza neighborhoods, while now, they enter and stay put in the area.”
However, Bregman questioned the long-term viability of this new approach, noting reluctance among Israeli reservists to return to service in Gaza.
Regarding the army's current strategy, Krieg noted a shift toward intense aerial bombardments and the “compartmentalization” of Gaza.
“If we don't get to phase two and we see the continuation of the current plan, what we will see is a compartmentalization of the Gaza Strip,” explained Krieg, adding that Israeli forces are creating corridors across Gaza, essentially implementing a “strategy of divide and rule.”
He described this approach as an “old-school approach to counterinsurgency,” intended to facilitate long-term occupation and possibly ethnic cleansing.
“If people are leaving these smaller enclaves that are being created by the IDF … it's unlikely that people will be allowed to return,” Krieg warned, citing recent examples of corridors established in Gaza's northern region.
He pointed to the example of the Netzarim corridor, set up by Israeli troops late last year in northern Gaza City in an attempt to block Palestinians displaced south from returning.
“I think that compartmentalization is an operational tool that will facilitate ethnic cleansing and thereby also facilitate military rule, and occupation of the Gaza Strip for an indefinite period of time.”
- Fallout from Shin Bet chief's dismissal
The dismissal of Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar by Netanyahu has also sparked widespread unrest and massive protests.
Netanyahu wanted Bar removed over his insistence on investigating a case directly involving the Prime Minister's office, Bregman explained. “That's Netanyahu style of dealing with those who attempt to investigate any wrongdoing of him and those around him.”
Krieg echoed these sentiments, expressing concerns that such moves are eroding meritocracy within Israel's security apparatus.
This comes as Israel under Netanyahu is becoming more autocratic, he noted, adding that the premier “wants to create a far-right fundamentalist, want to create a military or security sector that is that is built in their own image and follows blindly their strategic goals."
- Politicization of security and rising Zionist influence
Krieg noted a trend of politicization within Israel's security sector, particularly after Oct. 7, 2023.
“From the intelligence to the military, everyone who doesn't fall in line with the far-right extremist government has basically been sacked or has been ousted, has been shamed publicly,” Krieg said. This “has led to the worst crisis in civil-military relations in the history of Israel.”
Bregman added that the Israeli police force under Ben-Gvir has shifted dramatically towards aggressive enforcement aligned with far-right ideologies.
“The police are much more aggressive in dealing with demonstrators,” said Bregman.
Krieg also drew attention to the growing influence of religious Zionists within the military.
“Religious Zionists, the Kahanites, the settler movements, they are disproportionately highly represented in the IDF … particularly in the infantry,” Krieg said. He cited reports indicating nearly half of infantry school graduates hail from the Kahanite movement.
“That's how the military has been subverted by this movement … that absolutely has an impact on the conduct of the IDF, the violence used also during occupation in the West Bank, not just in Gaza,” he added.
Krieg warned that such internal polarization within the army could severely impact military cohesion.
"The polarization that we've seen across Israeli society for the last decade or so is now … increasingly across the military,” Krieg said.
“This trend of political polarization is likely going to increase making it ever more difficult for the IDF to operate as a national force. "
He suggested that Netanyahu deliberately fosters such divisions.
“And that's kind of deliberate by Netanyahu because, obviously, he wants to keep the war going.”
