South Africa elections: How Israel's war on Gaza could sway voters

Israel's ongoing war on Gaza may be thousands of miles away from the shores of South Africa, but it has become a key issue in the lead-up to the country's crucial May 29 elections.

South Africa has taken a leading role in efforts to hold Israel to account, filing a genocide case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for its deadly assault on Gaza, which has now killed more than 36,000 Palestinians and injured over 80,200, while displacing millions who are facing famine and acute shortages of medical aid and other essentials.

The case was filed by incumbent government of the African National Congress (ANC), and the party has doubled down on its pro-Palestine rhetoric on the campaign trail, according to Kealeboga Maphunye, a professor of politics at the University of South Africa.

“That is because the ANC recognizes that many South Africans view the cause of the Palestinians just like the cause of Black South Africans during apartheid,” he told Anadolu.

“The party went in with the idea that this sentiment needs to supported and given more prominence with visible steps taken against Israel.”

On the other hand, the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) seems to have taken a neutral stance, said Maphunye, warning that this could dent its support in areas with large Muslim communities, such as the Western Cape province it currently governs.

The warning is all the more consequential given the current political atmosphere in South Africa, as most experts believe this will be the country's tightest election since the first post-apartheid democratic polls of 1994.

Opinion polls also suggest the ruling ANC, once led by the late global icon Nelson Mandela, could see its three decades of political dominance come to an end, meaning that every vote could prove critical for the DA as it aims to upend South Africa's power dynamics.

- The Muslim vote

There are currently over 27 million registered voters in South Africa, a country of some 62 million.

They will be voting for lawmakers of provincial legislatures and 400 members of Parliament, known as the National Assembly. Voting is on a party basis and the parties get seats in the parliament.

These national lawmakers will then elect the president, which means that the party who wins the election gets ultimate power in the country.

“Muslims constitute about 1% of the voting population in South Africa,” Ahmed Jazbhay, a politics professor in the capital Pretoria, told Anadolu.

“This is an economically active community and has influence, with big Muslim businesses being key financiers of the ANC.”

For the ANC in particular, the Muslim vote will be crucial in this election because they need to retain support from all quarters, he added.

“The ANC has had a historic attachment to the Palestinian cause. Even before the democratic era in South Africa, it had relations with the Palestine Liberation Organization,” he said.

This was part of the reason the ANC government went ahead with the case at the ICJ, he said.

Back in January, however, the DA and the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP), said they would not support the case against Israel, saying it was wrong for South Africa to take sides in the conflict.

That stance, quite clearly, is already playing on voters' minds.

“You cannot remain silent during times of oppression and colonialism,” Malume Mondli, a resident of Soweto, a historic area in Johannesburg, told Anadolu.

However, another Johannesburg resident, who did not wish to be named, said he was willing to look past the DA's position on Palestine, saying the party has “promising policies, especially on governance, corruption and job creation.”

South Africa's unemployment rate currently stands at just under 33%, the highest in the entire world, making that one of the key electoral issues, along with corruption, rampant crime and a spiraling energy crisis.​​​​​​​

For Abullahi Ali, a resident of Johannesburg's Mayfair area, there is no choice but the ANC.

“The party has stood with many oppressed peoples of the world, from Western Sahara to Palestine and many peace-keeping missions around the continent,” he said.​​​​​​​