Experts weigh in on Erdogan's Balkan tour, hail Ankara's 'positive influence'

In the backdrop of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's three-day Balkan tour, experts hailed Türkiye's role and position in the region.

Erdogan, who is in Croatia on the last leg of his tour, earlier visited Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

During the visit, Türkiye inked several agreements aimed at further strengthening ties.

Speaking to Anadolu Agency, Vlade Radulovic, head of the Center for Geostrategic Research and Terrorism in Serbia, said: "In the last decade there has been an extremely remarkable and I would say significant cooperation, especially between Serbia and Türkiye."

He said "infrastructure projects, the presence of Turkish companies and investments are the best indicator of how important" Türkiye is in the region

Radulovic expressed his belief that Türkiye will stay relevant in the Balkans in the coming days.

Despite Türkiye and Serbia not seeing eye-to-eye on "certain issues" like "the Kosovo issue," Radulovic said it should not cause a hindrance to improving bilateral relations.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Wednesday's press conference praised the Turkish president over the importance he attaches to the region.

“We show respect and interest to Türkiye, make you feel at home here. I recommend that everyone should go to Türkiye. I think that everyone should see what this great country has achieved under Erdogan’s leadership.”

On the latest tension between Serbia and Kosovo, Vucic hailed Erdogan's role. "Türkiye's constructive role maintaining stability in the region is very important," he said.

Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia in 2008, with most UN member states, including the US, UK, France, Germany, and Türkiye, recognizing it as a separate country from its neighbor.

Serbia continues to see Kosovo as its territory.

This summer Kosovo narrowly averted a crisis over license plates and ID cards having to bear markings of Kosovo, until a compromise was reached.

- Role of mediator

Emphasizing that Türkiye and Serbia "will improve cooperation" in the near future, Radulovic stated that "the Turkish state can and has something to offer to the region in different fields, from the industry to transport, from market to defense also and to the issues concerning security in general."

On Wednesday, Türkiye and Serbia signed a total of seven deals in which one of them was an agreement on mutual promotion and protection of investments between the two states, and the other was in the field of innovation of technologies.

Citing the ongoing war in Ukraine, the Serbian expert said Türkiye and its President Erdogan was the only one "who managed to make a concrete result," as he referred to the historic Ukraine grain export deal.

"By doing so, it (Türkiye and Erdogan) showed its strength and credibility, which it enjoys not only in the region, but I would like to say also on the global level. This is why Türkiye naturally positions itself as possible mediator and someone who can solve potential problems in the Balkans," Radulovic added.

He further noted that Türkiye has the "greatest strength" -- compared to EU leaders -- of a "potential mediator and initiator of positive trends in the Balkans, Balkan societies and states."

Sead Turcalo, an expert at the think-tank Atlantic Initiative in Bosnia and Herzegovina, told Anadolu Agency that Türkiye in the past "acted as a mediator in a variety of political situations."

"Economic cooperation was also improved, with Turkey becoming one of the most important economic partners in the Western Balkans, alongside the EU. Turkey used the lack of a coherent EU policy toward the region to expand its political influence in the region, but it also found itself at the center of debates about the nature of its influence in the Western Balkans," he said, while adding that there are differences of opinions on the matter.

Commenting on Türkiye's role in Balkans in the future, Turcalo said it is "expected to accelerate economic cooperation, particularly with Bosnia and Herzegovina, since it is currently far more intensive with Serbia than with Bosnia and Herzegovina. Turkey is expected to support Bosnia and Herzegovina's Euro-Atlantic integration and to strongly advocate for NATO membership."

On Türkiye's possible role as mediator to disputes in the Balkans, the senior Bosnian expert said "some historical legacies" must be considered regarding this topic.

"Despite the fact that relations between Türkiye and Serbia are regarded as excellent, we see that by the political mainstream and the majority of the population in Serbia and Serb-dominated entity Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina the term Turks is used as a derogatory term for Muslims and Bosniaks," Turcalo said.

Stating that "Turkish politics is perceived there as neo-Ottoman," he said: "Such viewpoints about Turkish politics in Serbia and Republika Srpska reduce the likelihood that Türkiye will be accepted as a mediator in the event of a major conflict."

He also affirmed that Türkiye would "lose its credibility" if it were to maintain neutral in the event of an armed conflict.

"There is already concern in Bosnia and Herzegovina and some other countries in the region about the possibility of selling Bayraktar drones to Serbia. This is especially concerning in light of the announcement by some Serbian ministers about the establishment of the 'Serbian world', which is seen as a replacement for the Great Serbian politics that brought violence, ethnic cleansing, and genocide in the 1990s in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo," he said.

Turcalo stressed the security aspect of selling Bayraktar drones to Serbia must be considered "regardless of the economic rationale."

- Stability in Balkans

For his part, Slobodan Jankovic, a senior research fellow at the Institute of International Politics and Economics in Serbia, told Anadolu Agency that Türkiye has "very good relations with most of Balkan countries, good relations with both Serbia, Bosnia Herzegovina."

"It plays a good role for stability by doing the best it knows, in the sense of fostering economic cooperation, fostering cultural cooperation," Jankovic said, while noting that Ankara will not play a "decisive" role in the resolution on disputes within the Balkan region.

He further said Türkiye has some sort of "paternal relationship with the Balkan Muslim peoples," therefore it cannot be "nonpartisan" in case of a possible ethnic conflict in the Balkan region.

However, Jankovic did emphasize that Serbia and Türkiye have "a very, very good politics, in the sense of trying to preserve national interests of our own countries."

Noting the necessity of cooperation with neighboring states to preserve national interests, Jankovic said "what we (Serbia) are trying to do in the Balkans with Turkey is trying to establish peace around the region."

Speaking to Anadolu Agency on Türkiye's perspective, Sabri Demir, who is the chief advisor to President Erdogan on the Balkan region, emphasized that Ankara "attaches great importance to protecting the security, peace and political stability of the Balkans and strongly supports its economic development."

Affirming that the "concrete steps taken by President Erdogan on these issues are appreciated by the leaders of most Balkan countries," Demir stated that the Turkish president has "a constructive attitude towards all problems in the region and a sincere approach for a solution."

"My interlocutors clearly express their satisfaction with this attitude during my meetings in the (Balkan) region," he added.

Demir reiterated Erdogan's reputation as a leader who is able to communicate with all parties in the region through diplomatic channels.

As with the war in Ukraine and other crisis affecting regional and global stability, Demir said Erdogan has constructive efforts via meetings he holds with the leaders on all disputes concerning the Balkans.

"After all, as much as Balkans is an important region for Türkiye, likewise Türkiye is indeed a very important country for the Balkan countries," the chief advisor said.

He further stated that "Türkiye's diplomatic efforts to resolve problems both in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the Serbia-Kosovo conflict through dialogue are important for the peace and stability of the region. As Türkiye continues to strengthen its relations with the countries of the region in all areas, it also tries to solve the problems and prevent tensions."

Underlining that "peace and stability in the Balkans is as important for the stability of Europe as it is for Türkiye," Demir concluded: "Türkiye supports the integration of regional countries with Euro-Atlantic institutions."