‘This is beginning to look a lot like Gaza again. A lot of lives will be lost, a lot of blood will be shed,' says Israeli expert Ori Goldberg
The scenes emerging from Jenin refugee camp are hauntingly familiar: homes reduced to rubble, families fleeing with little more than the clothes on their backs, and drone strikes targeting civilians.
As Israel intensifies its “Iron Wall” military operation, launched on Jan. 21 following the Gaza ceasefire, experts warn that Palestinians in the occupied West Bank could face devastation similar to the coastal enclave.
Israeli forces have killed at least 30 Palestinians, injured 50 others, and uprooted thousands in the offensive that has mirrored tactics used in Gaza, raising fears of a broader campaign to forcibly displace Palestinians from the northern West Bank to make way for illegal settlements.
"The ongoing and expanding onslaught on Jenin and its camp is different than previous attacks as the Israeli regime is using the same playbook as in Gaza: decimation of vital infrastructure, destruction of houses, denying access to health care, forced displacement of the population," Shatha Abdulsamad, a policy analyst at think tank Al-Shabaka, told Anadolu.
Ihab Maharmeh, a researcher at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies in Doha, Qatar, echoed this sentiment, stating: "What's happening is clearly aimed at changing the geography and demographics of Jenin camp and Palestinian camps more broadly, similar to the aftermath of the Second Intifada when thousands of refugees were displaced."
- Systematic displacement and settler expansion
The Israeli onslaught on Jenin is not an isolated incident but part of a broader strategy to fragment Palestinian territories and expand settlements.
Abdulsamad explained that Israel's actions in Jenin, alongside similar patterns in Jerusalem, Masafer Yatta, and other areas, aim to “make life unbearable for Palestinians, pushing them to leave their land and fragmenting Palestinian territorial continuity.”
“This strategy is reinforced by Israeli legal and military policies designed to control Palestinian demographics while expanding Israeli settlements,” she added. The mass displacement, home demolitions, arbitrary arrests, and severe restrictions on movement, including access to health care and education, are part of a systematic policy to erase Palestinian presence.
"This deliberate destruction of property and denial of basic rights meets key criteria of forced displacement and ethnic cleansing," said Abdulsamad.
Maharmeh agrees, noting that Israel's military operations across Palestinian cities, villages, and refugee camps are tools in its “war of erasure against Palestinians.” He explained that by launching operations in different territories at different times, Israel ensures no area can fully recover or mobilize effectively against its colonial policies.
"It's a plan to enhance Israel's control over the West Bank as part of its settler-colonial annexation project, erasing key resistance strongholds, with Jenin as the cornerstone," said Maharmeh, who stressed the role of Western political and military backing in sustaining Tel Aviv's impunity as it pursues these plans.
He highlighted that eliminating resistance in Jenin would serve as a means to "solidify Israel's military grip on other West Bank cities and camps, furthering settlement expansion."
"The targeting of Jenin also serves as a deterrent to other camps, enabling Israel to impose new facts on the ground, including settlement expansion and tighter military measures, to eliminate any threats to its plans in the West Bank," he added.
- Annexation and political motivations
The timing of the offensive has raised questions, with experts linking it to broader political dynamics, including the return of Donald Trump to the US political scene and the fragility of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition government.
"These factors suggest that the Israeli attack on Jenin — which is already expanding to other Palestinian cities, villages and refugee camps in the north of the West Bank amid a wider Israeli military operation in the West Bank — offers a political opportunity, aligned with Zionist expansionist motives, to lay the ground for an annexation of the West Bank," said Abdulsamad.
She added that the offensive is likely aimed at appeasing Israeli settlers and settler leaders within Netanyahu's coalition, in exchange for a fragile ceasefire agreement in Gaza and with expected support by the new US administration.
Israeli colonial violence against Jenin is part of its wider systematic attacks against resistance strongholds in the West Bank, including Nablus and Tulkarem.
Abdulsamad said: "Jenin has been a focal point of Israeli attacks, raids and military operations, especially in the last three years due to its strong resistance infrastructure and historical role in Palestinian armed struggle. Israel's offensive aligns with a broader strategy to dismantle resistance."
- Jenin: A symbol of resistance
Jenin refugee camp, home to thousands of Palestinians displaced during the 1948 Nakba and their descendants, has long been a symbol of Palestinian resistance.
During the Second Intifada (2000–2005), the camp became a key base for armed groups, and in 2002, it was the site of a fierce battle against Israeli forces. Despite being vastly outgunned, Palestinian fighters resisted fiercely, cementing Jenin's status as a symbol of defiance.
“This deep history of dispossession fuels a strong sense of resistance against Israeli policies aimed at erasing Palestinian identity and presence in historic Palestine,” Abdulsamad explained. She added that Israel's repeated attacks on Jenin have only strengthened the resolve of younger generations to continue the struggle.
"This is why Israel continues to target the camp. It represents a direct challenge to its policies of erasure of Palestine and Palestinians, spearheaded by 1948 refugees, unwavering for their right of return."
Maharmeh also emphasized Jenin's unique role, describing it as a “key symbol” of Palestinian displacement and resistance to Israeli colonialism.
"Jenin holds a special place for its historical role, especially during the Second Intifada. Dubbed the 'Wasps' Nest' by Israel, the camp's resistance is more organized than elsewhere in the West Bank, with stronger military coordination, advanced tactics, and a unified national framework that transcends partisan identities," he said.
- A desperate move?
While many analysts view the offensive as part of a broader annexation strategy, Israeli expert Ori Goldberg believes it stems from desperation.
“It's … really desperation in the sense that Israel needs to show activity,” Goldberg said, adding that Tel Aviv feels like it must demonstrate assertiveness to “justify what happened over the last 15 months to the Israeli people.”
"Israel can demonstrate activity, which is necessary for domestic politics, mostly in the West Bank. The West Bank is still in Israel's hands to do with it as it wishes. That's the main reason for what is happening," he said.
He added that with Gaza out of Israel's hands and limited presence in Syria and Lebanon, the West Bank remains the only area where Israel can flex its military muscle. "The main reason is for this government, which is very right-wing, very much security-oriented, to demonstrate to its voting base and the Israeli public that it is fighting terrorism."
He warned that Israel will likely do its utmost to maximize "quote-unquote Israeli achievements."
“This is beginning to look a lot like Gaza again. A lot of lives will be lost, a lot of blood will be shed,” he said.
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