Colombia sees decade's 1st decline in migration from Venezuela

The Venezuelan migrant influx into Colombia has seen a notable decline for the first time in a decade, according to the country's migration agency.

The agency noted a peak in Venezuelan migrants in December 2022, with a subsequent month-by-month decrease. As a result, in December 2023, the number of Venezuelans in Colombia decreased from 2,896,748 to 2,864,796, indicating a 1.11% decline.

Fernando Garcia, the director of Migration Colombia, attributed this decline to the resumption of diplomatic relations between Colombia and Venezuela, suggesting that Venezuelans are returning home.

However, experts challenge this view, asserting that the decrease is not explained by improved relations even after years of ongoing fragmentation between the two countries. In fact, the outflow of migrants from Venezuela remains the largest displacement crisis in the world, reaching nearly 7.7 million people by August 2023, with an 8.3% increase in migration from 2022 to 2023.

“There has been a shift in migration patterns, with more individuals targeting the United States via the Darien Gap—a challenging land connection between Central and South America—rather than staying in Latin America,” Ronal Rodriguez, a professor at the Venezuelan Observatory, a think-tank at the University of Rosario in Colombia, told Anadolu.

The Darien Gap has witnessed an increase of migrants crossing, including those from Venezuela, Ecuador, Haiti and China. Panama's Security Minister Juan Manuel Pino revealed that approximately 70,000 migrants have crossed the Darien jungle so far in 2024, a notable increase from the previous year, with Venezuelans constituting over 60% of Darien crossings in 2023.

According to the International Crisis Group, in January 2023, approximately 75 Venezuelans went through each day. By late April, this figure had surged to around 850, and by August, it had risen again to about 2,000.

Analysts suggest that the policies of Colombian President Gustavo Petro's administration and a rise in xenophobia in other countries in the region are contributing to the decline in migration, highlighting a lack of prioritization of immigration issues.

Rodriguez notes the absence of a clear policy, creating uncertainty about the future of Venezuelans in Colombia.

Nearly 3 million Venezuelans live in Colombia, but despite the immigration authority granting over 500,000 Temporary Protection Permits during Petro's government, migrants argue that it is not enough. The administration's removal of the Border Management Office, responsible for migrant integration, has further limited collaboration between local governments and migrants' access to established projects and programs around the country.

Although President Petro attributes the Venezuelan exodus to economic blockades, often blaming US sanctions, Rodriguez counters this, saying that migration trends began before these sanctions in 2019, emphasizing that 2018 saw the most significant migratory growth.

The Petro government, says Rodriguez, has chosen to resume bilateral relations with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's government, sidelining the immigration issue. This stance has raised concern among migrants who are looking north for a better future.

“The proximity of speeches between President Petro and the Venezuelan government has made migrants question their decision of making Colombia their home,” said Rodriguez. “When migrants hear that the president denies or even justifies their reality, that creates anxiety in them, it generates fear.”

Venezuelan migrants are also leaving countries like Peru, and Chile, where they had originally migrated, due to rising xenophobia, discrimination and legislative discussions that seek to criminalize irregular migration. The governments of these countries have militarized their borders in order to stop the arrival of undocumented people to the country, especially those of Venezuelan origin.

In Colombia, xenophobia does not reach the levels of Peru or Chile due to the similarity between the Colombian and Venezuelan cultures. But along with insecurity in the country, xenophobia has also grown in the last few years. Rodriguez said there is a tendency “to hold Venezuelans responsible for security problems.”

“It is easier to point the finger at the foreign population than to say that insecurity problems are the product of the peace process that we are experiencing in Colombia, or the long-lasting effects of the (coronavirus) pandemic and the dynamics of crime in cities.”

The fear with the growth of xenophobic dynamics adds to an environment of instability, making many wonder if it is worth staying or if they should go in search of the American dream, even if it means risking the well-being of their families by undertaking that dangerous route.

When crossing the Darien, migrants are exposed to multiple human rights violations, including sexual violence, murders, disappearances, trafficking and robbery by organized criminal groups. And arriving in the US is no guarantee of finding a job and basic services.

The impact of the migration crisis and the stigma of being an undocumented foreigner is also being felt all over the US. New York Mayor Eric Adams has said that the ongoing migrant crisis “will destroy New York City.”

President Maduro said last Tuesday that migrants from his country “have to return to their land, because it awaits them.”

“They have to return. The homeland awaits them. The homeland needs them, our migrant brothers and sisters in the world,” said the head of state in a television broadcast.

But the causes that generated the flow of migrants in the first place, including the economic crisis, poverty and the lack of democratic guarantees, still prevent migrants from returning.

Venezuelan National Electoral Council President Elvis Amoroso announced that presidential election will be held on July 28, though it does not seem that the government is making plans for the return of the millions who have fled.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​