Israel has launched an attack on Lebanon following its actions in Gaza. While some are saying this indicates the region is heading toward a major war, the signs suggest otherwise. Despite open challenges, Iran has not taken action in Gaza. It remained silent as high-ranking commanders were killed and even adopted a position to ease tensions when its embassy in Damascus was targeted. After the death of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran took a more measured approach. Following the attack on Lebanon,
Israel has launched an attack on Lebanon following its actions in Gaza. While some are saying this indicates the region is heading toward a major war, the signs suggest otherwise.
Despite open challenges, Iran has not taken action in Gaza. It remained silent as high-ranking commanders were killed and even adopted a position to ease tensions when its embassy in Damascus was targeted. After the death of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran took a more measured approach. Following the attack on Lebanon, statements from Iran suggest that Tehran is giving "diplomacy a chance."
Why is Tehran adopting this stance? Is there a background agreement between the U.S. and Iran? The signs strongly indicate "yes." Let me explain how.
EVERYTHING REVOLVES AROUND THIS ISSUE
The U.S.'s primary goal is to minimize its presence in the region and shift its focus toward China. Everything revolves around this. The exit strategy rests on two pillars: First, ensuring Israel's security, which involves reducing Iran's influence around Israel (in Lebanon and Syria). For this reason, control by Israel in Gaza, Lebanon, and southern Syria is desired. Second, uniting Arab countries to balance Iran, maintaining a divided region under tension.
The U.S. focus on China began during the Trump era. The Global Alliance was established precisely for this purpose. Trump's agreement with Türkiye in 2018 to withdraw troops from Syria was also related to this shift toward China. After Trump left office, the Global Alliance dissolved, but the strategy continued. The Biden administration is trying to establish an Arab alliance led by Saudi Arabia while simultaneously providing unwavering support to Israel.
2023 BECAME A TURNING POINT
In 2019, a secret meeting took place between the U.S., Russia, and Israel, where it was decided to eliminate Iran's presence in Syria. (For details, see "Geopolitical Surprise: How the U.S., Russia, and Israel Reached an Agreement? April 2024.") The Russians turned a blind eye to Israel's operations in Syria. Qassem Soleimani was killed six months after this meeting.
The year 2023 became a turning point after nearly four years of low-intensity conflict. The U.S. accelerated its withdrawal efforts from the region and began discussing the future of the PKK terrorist organization with Türkiye.
As the U.S. prepared to exit, Israel seized the opportunity of October 7 to establish a security perimeter around itself. Under the oversight of the U.S. military, which is increasing its presence in the region, Israel entered Gaza (EU High Representative Borrell stated that Israel also intends to annex the West Bank). Now, it is attacking Lebanon. As we have consistently pointed out from the beginning, Israel aims to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River.
DETAILS OF THE AGREEMENT ARE EMERGING
So, why is Iran remaining silent in the face of so many attacks that undermine its reputation? Because it is said that an agreement has been reached between the U.S. and Iran. Back in May, I asked, "What was discussed in the U.S.-Iran secret meeting?" The developments since then reveal the topics agreed upon in the secret discussions. Let's list them.
First, it is said that the U.S. promised Tehran that nuclear negotiations would resume after the November elections. There are even mentions of "comprehensive political negotiations." Iran demands the lifting of sanctions after nuclear talks. Iranian President Pezeshkian stated in New York that they want to return to nuclear negotiations. "If the commitments of the nuclear agreement are fully met, we can also engage in discussions on other issues," he said.
Second, after six months of negotiations, the U.S. recently agreed to withdraw from Iraq. The U.S. already wanted to leave the region but made Iraq a bargaining chip with Iran. A few days after this news broke, Pezeshkian made a symbolic visit to Iraq, even taking a selfie with Bafel Talabani.
THE SYRIA FILE REMAINS OPEN
Third, Gaza or the West Bank are not significant for Iran. But Hezbollah is important. Media close to Hezbollah attribute the organization's lack of response to Israel to the lack of approval from Iran. Pezeshkian says, "Hezbollah cannot stand against Israel alone." Iran does not want any interference in Hezbollah's presence in Lebanon. However, this silence in the face of current events raises the question of whether there is an agreement regarding the organization's withdrawal to the north.
Fourth, Hezbollah is a problem for both Israel and the U.S., but the Iranian-backed groups in Yemen are not seen as an issue, which is why they are not discussed. The presence of forces in Yemen serves the interests of the U.S. as it helps balance Saudi Arabia.
Fifth, I believe the Syria file has been left open in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Iran opposes the integration of Syria into the Saudi-led consortium and wants to maintain its presence in the country. This is why both the U.S. and Russia seem interested in discussing the Syria issue with Türkiye. The U.S. is bringing up the PKK issue, while the Russians are facilitating dialogue with Assad. If the Syria file remains open, it could become the next area of conflict.
