The Lebanese Gordian knot

On the morning of February 14, 2005, Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, witnessed one of the most shocking assassinations in recent Middle Eastern history: former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was killed in a bomb attack on his convoy near the famous St. George Hotel along the Beirut waterfront. Known for his close ties to Saudi Arabia, Hariri was instrumental in the Taif Agreement that ended the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990) and served as prime minister twice, from 1992-1998 and 2000-2004. With immense wealth and strong connections across the Arab world, he played a key role in the reconstruction of Beirut and was the leading political figure for Lebanon’s Sunni Muslims. Hariri's popularity soared even more after the Israeli occupation of South Lebanon, which began in 1982, ended in 2000. He also advocated for the withdrawal of Syrian forces, which had been stationed in Lebanon since 1976, leading to tensions with Lebanon's Syrian-backed President Emil Lahoud. Eventually, Hariri resigned from his role as prime minister and was assassinated shortly after.

Hariri's assassination sparked weeks of mass protests in Lebanon, which ultimately led to the withdrawal of Syrian troops. In the aftermath, the country was consumed by intense debates about who was responsible for Hariri's murder, with much suspicion falling on the Shiite paramilitary group Hezbollah. Given Hariri's stance against Syrian and Iranian influence in Lebanon, Hezbollah quickly became the prime suspect. Initial reports from international investigation commissions pointed to Hezbollah’s involvement in the assassination.

Founded during Israel’s 1982 siege of Beirut to resist Zionist occupation, Hezbollah eventually transformed into a parallel state within Lebanon, growing more powerful in politics and commerce while serving as Iran’s proxy in the region. Though Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000 seemed to eliminate Hezbollah’s main reason for existence, the 2006 war with Israel gave the group a new foothold and helped it shed the accusations surrounding Hariri’s murder.

The “July War,” as it came to be known, lasted from July 12 to August 14, 2006, and ended in a ceasefire brokered by the UN. By the war's conclusion, Hezbollah had cemented its role as Lebanon’s protector, and the Hariri assassination was largely forgotten as the entire country rallied around Hezbollah. Songs, poems, and chants all praised the group.

After the July War, a strong alliance was formed between Lebanon’s traditionally French-backed Christian factions and Hezbollah. Even former Christian militia leaders, who once fought against Hezbollah during the civil war, rose in politics with Hezbollah's support. The most prominent example of this was Michel Aoun, who had battled the Hezbollah-Iran-Syria trio during the civil war. After the Taif Agreement, Aoun went into exile in France, but upon his return to Lebanon in 2005, he was elected president in 2016 with Hezbollah’s backing.

The rise of Hezbollah as Lebanon’s dominant force, facilitated by Israel, also played a key role in the brutal sieges of Syrian towns and villages when the Arab Spring erupted. Hezbollah sent fighters into Syria en masse, using the war as a training ground to refine their combat tactics on Syrian civilians. During a period when thousands of Syrian women and children were killed, and people were dying of starvation, Hezbollah’s justification eerily echoed the same language Israel now uses to defend its genocide in Gaza: “Terrorists are using civilians as human shields.”

With our short memory spans and the fast-paced nature of Middle Eastern politics, it’s easy to lose track of events and their significance. I wrote this piece to refresh our memories and help contextualize the current events. As we follow Israel’s ongoing attacks on Lebanon, let’s keep this background in mind.