Trump's election-focused abortion statement

In the presidential race, Trump demonstrated that he would not take an ideological stance on the abortion issue, which Biden wanted to make a central agenda. Instead, he refused to be cornered on this issue. Conservative Republican groups expected Trump to support a law that would impose abortion restrictions across the country. However, Trump, having seen how supporting Trumpian candidates who advocated for abortion bans hindered their electoral success in midterm elections, did not want to face the same fate.

Rather than advocating for a controversial federal regulation that would draw backlash from both Republican and Democratic middle-class and educated women, Trump declared a position of "each state should make its own decision." While this drew some backlash from conservatives, it's unlikely to lead to a significant rebellion against a president who appointed Supreme Court judges responsible for overturning Roe v. Wade. Conservative groups who believe that Trump is merely politically expedient have few options other than working for his success.

Trump's refusal to take a national stance advocating for a ban on abortion received the strongest backlash from former Vice President Mike Pence. Pence described Trump's decision as a "slap in the face" to those who voted for him in 2016 and 2020. However, given the loyalty of evangelical voters to Trump, who delivered on their desires such as the repeal of Roe v. Wade and recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital, Pence's criticisms are unlikely to have a lasting impact.

Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who supports a 15-week abortion ban at the national level (with exceptions for rape, incest, and the mother's life), was also among those who criticized Trump's statement. Trump may have sought to show respect for the sensitivity of evangelical voters by not responding directly to Pence but instead targeting Graham, implying that Democrats liked Graham because they wanted to keep the abortion issue on the agenda.

By advocating for leaving the issue to the states rather than a national abortion ban, Trump, at least for now, does not want to lose political ground. However, many Republican states already have either complete bans on abortion or highly restricted laws. Florida recently reduced its existing 15-week ban to 6 weeks, and similar laws are being enacted in other states. Therefore, Democrats are likely to continue targeting Trump on this issue, as his position supports the current situation.

In the abortion issue, Trump will be "under fire" from both Democrats and conservative members of his own party. His goal seems to be not losing the votes of swing state women. While winning states with abortion bans is largely assured for Trump, winning the support of independent voters in critical states is more important. Trump needs the support of educated women voters in the suburbs to balance the Democratic dominance in urban centers.

In this regard, Trump prefers to focus on the Mexico border and cost of living along with immigration. Trump's reluctance to take a clear stance on abortion while using radical rhetoric against undocumented immigrants entering the country shows his understanding of the realities of the presidential election map. Trump's cautious approach to abortion, despite not shying away from expressing his base's desires in the strongest terms, indicates that he is aware of the Democrats' advantage on this issue.