Still waters run deep in DC

While U.S.-Iran negotiations proceed quietly on the surface, Washington is witnessing extraordinary behind-the-scenes maneuvering—like ducks gliding smoothly on water while paddling furiously beneath. This precisely describes the current situation in the capital, where the Israel Lobby, neoconservatives, and hawkish factions are racing against more cautious voices to shape Trump's Iran policy. Netanyahu has been deeply unsettled by Trump's decision to engage Iran diplomatically. Israel isn’t pushing for talks—it wants a full-scale military intervention. According to U.S. media reports, Trump's abrupt pivot to negotiations was triggered by intelligence that Israel was preparing strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The move effectively checkmated Netanyahu, who reportedly left his White House meeting with Trump visibly displeased. Despite intense lobbying, the Israeli prime minister failed to secure U.S. backing for military action.

A report by Barak Ravid in Axios reveals further divisions: Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz remain skeptical of diplomacy with Iran, while Vice President J.D. Vance, Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth believe negotiations can yield results. Notably, Tucker Carlson—whose views carry weight with Trump—reportedly backs the diplomatic camp, unnerving pro-Israel factions wary of his influence. Israel's lobbying efforts, however, show no signs of slowing. Ahead of the "Rome Round" of talks, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Mossad chief David Barnea met Witkoff in Paris to convey Israel's concerns. Yet a Jerusalem Post report on April 20 suggests their pressure tactics failed. The same piece notes that while Barnea recently held productive talks with CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Israeli officials now recognize Witkoff as the key figure they must sway.

Pro-Israel circles allege Trump is willing to settle for limiting—rather than eliminating—Iran's nuclear program. They’ve criticized the sidelining of Rubio in favor of Witkoff as lead negotiator. A New York Times piece confirms Trump rejected Israel's proposal for joint military strikes, revealing months of internal debate between those advocating attacks on nuclear sites and those pushing for continued talks. What’s clear? Trump is determined to block Iran's path to nuclear weapons but appears open to tolerating a civilian program—a red line for hardliners demanding total dismantlement. Meanwhile, the Defense Department is in upheaval. Three senior advisors were abruptly dismissed recently under murky circumstances. Notably, one ousted official, Dan Caldwell, had been targeted by pro-Israel outlets for his perceived "dovish" stance on Iran.

A leaked audio from AIPAC’s closed-door February "Congressional Summit," first reported by The Grayzone’s Max Blumenthal on April 9, exposes more subterranean machinations. The recording, later surfaced by Ron Paul’s institute, features AIPAC Director Elliott Brandt boasting about the group’s access. He name-drops Waltz, Ratcliffe, and Rubio as long-time AIPAC beneficiaries, implying the lobby gains strategic intelligence through these ties. That this scandal hasn’t made mainstream headlines speaks volumes. For those watching closely, these revelations illuminate the shadowy forces driving Washington’s Iran policy—and why surface-level calm belies an ocean of chaos beneath.