Normalization of Israel-Saudi ties under US sponsorship

In recent days, news suggesting progress in the discussions between the United States and Saudi Arabia, and approaching the stage of agreement, could herald a new era in the Middle East. Saudis are seeking support from the United States to develop 'peaceful' nuclear technology in response to Iran's nuclear capacity, as well as security assurances in the event of a potential war. The agreement, which includes cooperation in advanced technology and distancing from China, is critical for the Biden administration, as its support depends on it. However, it will be challenging for a government led by Netanyahu, who has always opposed the establishment of a Palestinian state, to accept the insistence of the Saudis on stopping the Gaza war and a two-state solution. The Biden administration aims to use the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia to sideline the Gaza issue and appear to have 'resolved' the Palestinian issue by the November elections, but Netanyahu remains the biggest obstacle to this.

ABRAHAM ACCORDS

Before the Gaza war, Israel considered the Palestinian issue to be solely a conflict management problem. The Abraham Accords during the Trump era normalized Israel's relations with countries like the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco. It was suggested that Saudi Arabia would soon be included in this normalization process. Israelis, who believed that normalization with regional countries would effectively solve the Palestinian issue, began to discuss annexation plans for the West Bank. The deepening occupation and reaching the annexation stage also signaled that a two-state solution was no longer realistic. Hamas's attack on October 7th, which struck a blow to Israel's normalization with Arab countries, demonstrated that the Palestinian issue was not merely a conflict management issue, as Israel claimed.

Prior to October 7th, Saudi Arabia insisted on a security agreement with the United States in exchange for normalization with Israel, but the Biden administration was dragging its feet on this process. Biden's cold attitude towards Riyadh due to the Khashoggi issue and Washington's reluctance to quickly lower oil prices by OPEC influenced the administration's reluctance to rush into Israeli-Saudi normalization. Furthermore, last year's normalization between Iran and Saudi Arabia under China's diplomatic and security guarantees also played a role in the Biden administration's cooling of relations with Riyadh. While the Biden administration continues negotiations with Iran for a nuclear agreement, it focuses on managing the process there due to its fear of Israeli and, consequently, congressional backlash. In other words, while pretending to negotiate with Iran and not rushing into Israeli-Saudi normalization, the administration's plans were disrupted by the outbreak of the Gaza war, as it sought to gain time until the November 2024 elections.

OBSTACLE TO NORMALIZATION: PALESTINE

Israel's efforts to make Gaza uninhabitable, starting with Hamas's attack on October 7th, left Saudis in a difficult position but also strengthened their hands. Saudis had to take a clear stance on the Palestinian issue, but they also saw that it was the right decision not to rush into normalization before resolving the issue. Riyadh made it a condition of normalization for Israel to stop the Gaza war and accept a two-state solution. In this way, they avoided the political cost of normalization without resolving the Palestinian issue. In contrast to Türkiye, which is working to establish a common stance on the Palestinian issue in the Arab and Muslim world, Saudis focused on bilateral defense agreements with the United States. It remains doubtful how successful this approach, which sidelines the Palestinian issue, will be, as the American Congress will focus on how a potential agreement will ensure Israel's security.

Reports suggest that Saudis proposed keeping Israeli normalization out of the agreement as a 'Plan B' because they predicted that Israel would not accept the establishment of a Palestinian state. It will be necessary for Biden to show that the agreement serves American national interests and guarantees Israel's security in order to gain Congress's support. However, even if he does so, it is almost impossible for a leader like Netanyahu, who constantly raises his hand to increase American support, to agree to peace. In this case, Saudis may try to implement their Plan B by making a security agreement and using it as a pressure tool against Israel, but it is doubtful that Biden has the energy and courage to impose a solution on Israel.

The Abraham Accords, presented by Trump as the 'deal of the century,' aimed to normalize Israel's regional relations without resolving the Palestinian issue. The post-October 7th process once again showed that this was not possible, but it seems that the Biden administration sees normalization with Saudis as a way out. The administration's attempt to rein in Netanyahu directly through the Gaza war has failed, so it seems to hope to achieve this through normalization with Saudis. However, it is known that the Netanyahu government does not want the establishment of a Palestinian state and aims to annex Palestinian territories to create 'Greater Israel.' Rather than having the courage to pressure Israel to abandon this goal and accept the establishment of a Palestinian state, the Biden administration's hope for normalization with Saudis appears more like a strategic move to postpone and manage the situation as it heads into the November elections.