Israel and Iran’s U.S. election bets...

Israel's latest covert operations, indiscriminately targeting both soldiers and civilians, have now been directed at Hezbollah. In a coordinated attack, Israel detonated devices placed in the pagers and radios of thousands of Hezbollah members, a move that could be studied in intelligence courses for its precision. Previously, Israel’s assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran had exposed a major security flaw in Iran. This new operation, injuring thousands of Hezbollah members, now reveals significant security vulnerabilities within Hezbollah itself. If Hezbollah responds to this provocation, which marks Israel’s latest attempt to escalate tensions in the region, war seems inevitable. However, should the U.S. intervene behind the scenes to prevent Hezbollah from engaging Israel, it would signal that Iran is prioritizing a potential post-election deal with the U.S. over immediate conflict.

Hezbollah's Response Hinges on Iran

Following the attacks on October 7, tens of thousands of Israelis living near the Lebanese border moved south, fearing a war with Hezbollah. Israel had been pressuring Hezbollah to retreat northward, keeping the threat of war alive for months. While Hezbollah has downplayed the threats, the group has intermittently responded with small-scale rocket attacks, maintaining a low-intensity conflict. Lebanon has become the focal point of Israel’s undeclared regional war against Iran. The months of back-and-forth strikes have displaced tens of thousands of civilians. By shifting its military focus from Gaza to the Lebanese border with these pager bombings, Israel is making it clear that it is provoking Hezbollah into a full-scale war. It is also evident that Hezbollah’s response will depend on approval from Iran, and that a total war with Israel would guarantee U.S. military aid to Israel.

Hezbollah will likely feel pressured to respond swiftly and forcefully to Israel’s attack. The messages that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah delivers in his upcoming address could provide clues as to the next steps in this escalating conflict. Some analysts suggest that regardless of the outcome of the November U.S. elections, a deal between the U.S. and Iran is likely. Iran’s deteriorating economic situation is creating immense domestic pressure, and its reluctance to respond to Israel’s operations may indicate that it is unwilling to risk direct confrontation with the U.S. While Iranian President Pezeshkian has threatened to make Israel pay for the pager attacks, it would not be surprising if this rhetoric remains just that. Pezeshkian’s recent comments signaling a willingness to engage in direct nuclear negotiations with the U.S. suggest that Iran is waiting for the American elections before taking further action.

U.S. Diplomatic Shield and Military Support

Israel’s pager and radio attacks, which do not distinguish between soldiers and civilians, violate international law and could be considered war crimes. However, Israel will likely avoid legal repercussions by not officially acknowledging responsibility. The United Nations Security Council is set to meet on Friday to discuss the attack, but the U.S. veto power will ensure that no significant resolution against Israel will be passed. Apart from calls for de-escalation and an investigation, little is expected from the meeting. While the U.S. and Europe are often more sensitive when it comes to war crime allegations against other actors, the double standards in Israel’s case are expected to persist.

Israel’s actions may prompt some European countries, such as Germany, to halt arms sales to Israel, but as long as Washington continues its military support, Israel is unlikely to feel real international pressure. Both U.S. presidential candidates have expressed opposition to restricting arms sales to Israel, citing its right to self-defense. American laws ensure the continuation of military aid to Israel, leaving no doubt about Washington's commitment. The U.S. not only provides diplomatic protection on international platforms like the UN but also maintains military support for Israel, despite the escalating tensions.

While Israel continues its operations against targets in Iran and Lebanon, the U.S. is pressuring Tehran behind the scenes to prevent any retaliatory action. This makes Israel’s job easier. As long as Israel can conduct operations without facing a response from Iran or Hezbollah, it hampers their ability to establish deterrence. However, Israel may also be increasing tensions ahead of the November elections to undermine a potential U.S.-Iran deal post-election. If Iran seeks to thwart Israel’s strategy by reaching a deal with the U.S. after the elections, it will try to prevent Hezbollah from responding to the pager bombings. Entering a war amid such glaring security vulnerabilities may not be wise. Regardless of these calculations, it seems clear that the undeclared regional war will continue as Israel intends, unless a lasting agreement is reached between the U.S. and Iran.