Can Washington sway the hawks in Israel and Iran?

These days, the Biden administration is trying to persuade Iran to limit its attacks on Israel. However, it's impossible to overlook the incentivizing role played by the administration's unlimited support for the Netanyahu government thus far. After the Hamas attack on October 7, the Biden administration not only consistently expressed its support for Israel but also continued the flow of weapons and ammunition to Israel without applying the human rights criteria it usually imposes on arms sales to other countries. Despite declaring the operation on Rafah a "red line," Biden did not react when the Netanyahu government ignored this. The United States continued its tradition of protecting Israel at the United Nations, even at the cost of being internationally isolated. Biden even risked being called "Genocidal Joe" by supporting Israel's ethnic cleansing campaign in Gaza, which aimed to make the area uninhabitable, despite his voters' reactions. This policy neither achieved a ceasefire nor prevented the potential for a regional war.

Throughout his tenure, Biden has borne the political and diplomatic costs generated by Israel for the U.S. Occasionally, he tried to show his displeasure by letting the media know how harshly he spoke to Netanyahu. However, sending warships to protect Israel while leaking his anger at Netanyahu to the press only highlighted Biden's incapacity to create effective policies and convince Tel Aviv. The message leaked from Monday's national security meeting indicated uncertainty about when and how Iran might attack Israel but reiterated that the U.S. would continue to protect Israel. The Biden administration, which has failed to secure a ceasefire in Gaza or prevent the Israel-Iran conflict from escalating into a broader regional war, appears unable to get either Israel or Iran to do its bidding. As it cannot devise an effective diplomatic strategy prioritizing American interests, the administration ends up cleaning up after Israel's maximalist and aggressive policies and urging Iran to remain calm when tensions rise.

The Biden administration seems unwilling to disrupt Netanyahu's game of constant escalation. Instead, it fails to resist the effort to bring Iran into the equation to divert attention from Israel's actions in Gaza. The message from the Biden administration after October 7, that Israel's operations are acceptable as long as they don't escalate into a regional war and remain confined to Gaza, is unsustainable. Biden, ignoring Netanyahu's continuous war policy to stay in power, tried to secure a ceasefire to enter the November elections smoothly. However, Netanyahu, as if to clarify his stance, targeted Haniyeh, one of the most crucial actors who could establish a ceasefire and lasting peace. By conducting this operation in the Iranian capital, Netanyahu advanced the ongoing de facto regional war to a new stage. The Biden administration, now incapable of exerting meaningful pressure on Netanyahu, attempted to ensure that Iran's response would be limited through messages sent via regional countries.

In April, Biden tried to coordinate the intensity and timing of Iran's attack on Israel to assure Tel Aviv that Israel's security could be maintained. However, he overlooked the reality that Netanyahu's primary concern was to expand the war to secure his own power. Today, even if Hamas surrendered, Netanyahu would not only declare Hamas untrustworthy but also insist that the real problem is Iran, doing everything possible to continue the undeclared regional war. Netanyahu, who has always been against the establishment of a Palestinian state and has never made a genuine commitment to the peace process, has consistently used his advantage of being the most decisive actor in America's Middle East policy, asserting that Israel's security will only be assured if the regime in Iran changes. Expecting Biden to lower regional tensions through a political figure who sees his political survival in the continuation of the war is pure wishful thinking.

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's remarks on the nature of the support Israel receives from the U.S. and Europe can be read as an indication that the ongoing de facto regional war has reached an uncontrollable point. Fidan's emphasis that the West's calls for regional countries to de-escalate tensions to cover their own lack of policy are unsustainable in the face of Israel's deepening cycle of violence is significant. It is clear that the hawks in both Israel and Iran are feeding off each other and do not want lasting peace. Real and lasting peace is only possible when the hawks are convinced that they have no option other than peace. If the U.S. is serious about achieving peace, it needs to show that the intensification and permanence of the regional war are not in the hawks' interests. Without the courage to produce such a clear policy, Washington will not be able to establish a healthy diplomatic coordination with countries like Turkey that see the conflict environment in the region as contrary to their interests.

Regarding Israel, Biden must convincingly present to Netanyahu the threat that expanding the regional war will cost him his power. He also needs to assure the Iranian hawks that direct attacks on Iran by Israel will cease. The Biden administration, unable to pressure Netanyahu or pursue a carrot-and-stick policy against Iran due to fears of backlash from Israel's supporters in America, largely relies on short-term policies. Biden's failure to exert real pressure on Israel, merely expressing discomfort through statements, demonstrates that his policy has failed and that he is stuck in a reactive position in the face of regional developments. Thus, it seems unlikely that he will be able to convince the hawks in either Israel or Iran.