With just one week left until the elections, Ekrem İmamoğlu has changed his tactics and rhetoric. He has sidelined both his party, the CHP, and Istanbul. He also seemed to panic a bit. In recent appearances, he portrayed a figure of a president who either couldn't remember his promises or didn't know why he made them in the first place. Naturally, his lack of awareness about Istanbul reflected negatively in the polls. İmamoğlu began soliciting votes not to serve Istanbul but to further his own political career.
However, there's also a change in strategy. İmamoğlu now tells voters in every district he visits not to "split the votes" anymore. In front of the cameras, he stated, "The issue has surpassed a municipal election. It's a matter of burying an understanding in history. If it's buried in history, democracy will revive, if it's buried in history, freedom will be reborn in this country. If it's buried in history, this understanding, March 31st is such an election. Truly, law and justice will come to themselves."
İmamoğlu's subtle but equally clear call is directed towards whom? Of course, DEM Party voters. His reference to "understanding" is aimed at President Erdoğan and Türkiye's last 22 years. İmamoğlu is squarely at odds with this understanding. By using Istanbul as a backdrop, he seeks to plot his own future and has plans to involve the pivotal DEM Party in his struggle.
The crisis in the DEM Party, which erupted from Afyon, clearly demonstrated how İmamoğlu neutralized Özgür Özel and showed that he has the authority to silence and intimidate everyone in the CHP, even withdrawing them from candidacy.
The math and the polls are clear. İmamoğlu has no door left to knock on but the DEM Party voters. He calculates that the votes he'll lose from not serving Istanbul and not taking its problems seriously will only be balanced by the "leftover" votes from DEM.
He seems to make this calculation most notably through Esenyurt.
In Istanbul, Esenyurt and Küçükçekmece were decisive in the 2019 Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality elections due to their population and demographic structure. Because both districts switched to the CHP with DEM's support in 2019. Although DEM is not entering the elections from Esenyurt, they have fielded a candidate. CHP withdrew its initial candidate from Esenyurt and instead nominated Ahmet Özer, who has Kurdish roots and advocates for autonomy. Regardless of what anyone says, Ahmet Özer is DEM's candidate. So, those who voted for CHP in Esenyurt will vote for DEM's candidate as part of the "Urban Consensus."
The hidden yet locally publicized alliance has caused discomfort in Esenyurt, which will impact the election results. Especially Ahmet Özer's remarks in an interview are widely discussed in the district: "Esenyurt is already a district bigger than seven metropolises. Whether Esenyurt becomes a province is a decision of the central government. Of course, the people of Esenyurt can make such a request with a referendum."
The fact that the HDP-origin candidate who ran from CHP for the elections made such an extensive comment in response to a question about cutting Esenyurt off from Istanbul is now recorded as a revelation of mindset.
While some research firm managers say the elections in Istanbul are neck and neck, others say some districts are trending towards AK Party from CHP, and Esenyurt is also in the mix for change. The inclination towards the candidate of the People's Alliance, Hamit Öncü, is added to the analyses.
The situation is becoming clear in Esenyurt, which was previously considered secured with the "Urban Consensus" alliance, and the tableau reflected in the polls is apparent. İmamoğlu seems to have noticed this, as he made statements in the district the other day to prevent the discomfort caused by the "hidden DEM candidate": "Don't split your votes. It's not time for party politics. Some may want to get angry at a flea and set fire to the blanket. Don't give them that opportunity."
Let's do a simple question-and-answer based on the above "vital warnings":
Who will split the votes in Esenyurt?
Nationalist, nationalist CHP voters who are uncomfortable with the DEM candidate.
Who will engage in party politics?
İYİ Party voters who voted for İmamoğlu in 2019 and young people turning to Zafer Party.
Who will set fire to the blanket for a flea?
Former AK Party voters in Esenyurt who voted for İmamoğlu but are from the Black Sea region.
The elections in Istanbul seem to be heading towards a deadlock centered around Esenyurt. In the last week, new moves will directly influence the results. As seen, we are in the days of additions and subtractions... Those who do politics with a calculator faced a heavy defeat on May 14 and 28. Let's see if this time, the personal ambition politics based on those who leave and those who come will prevail, or will it be the rhetoric of those whose concern is Istanbul?
My answer is this: If Erdoğan and the AK Party electorate see the picture and read Türkiye's future correctly, İmamoğlu doesn't stand a chance.
There are six days left, and if God permits, we will discuss the results next week.
