Azerbaijanis' affection for 'Chief' Erdogan, preparations for May 14 elections

I was on my way to the Azerbaijani capital Baku on the night President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was taken ill on live television. I arrived towards the morning, and my host Zafer, who came to greet me, directly asked after salutations: “How is the chief?”

Azerbaijanis refer to their state leader Ilham Aliyev in English as “president.” When I visited Azerbaijan seven months following the liberation of Karabakh from invasion, I heard the Azerbaijanis I met refer to Erdoğan as, “our president.” In fact, I mentioned it in this column too. However, I heard the term “chief” used for the first time. I asked Zafer why they call Erdoğan chief. He responded, “Our [love for him is so great that our] heart is not big enough for him. He is at the highest level.”

The people of Azerbaijan truly do have an inexplicable love for the people of Türkiye, and Erdoğan. It is enough to tell anyone, “I am from Türkiye.” They immediately embrace you with their love and sincerity.

We set off towards Karabakh as the sun was rising. Zafer said, “We watched the news all night. We are curious about our chief’s condition.” Indeed, whomever we spoke to all day, the agenda was Erdoğan’s health condition.”

Surely Erdoğan’s contributions towards reclaiming Karabakh are effective in this love. However, there is a great prior “yearning” as well. As known, the two sister countries’ ties weakened for many reasons after Baku was liberated from invasion in 1918 by the Caucasus Islamic Army, led by Nuri Pasha.

The reason ties that became weaker over the years are now stronger than steel and turned into great love and affection is known by all: The Karabakh victory in 2020 against Armenia.

Regardless of whom you speak to in Azerbaijan, you will certainly hear them say: “If it wasn’t for Türkiye if Erdoğan had not made efforts, we could not have taken Karabakh.”

The people of Azerbaijan still remember Nuri Pasha, and the Türkiye that refrained from sending the helicopters requested for civilians’ evacuation in 1992 while Armenians were conducting massacres. They analyze really well the Türkiye that was dealing with its own problem in those years in comparison to the powerful Türkiye that ensured Karabakh’s conquest.

Hence, they are stronger Erdoğan supporters than the electorates in Türkiye. Therefore, the public polls conducted in Azerbaijan present 92 percent support for Erdoğan.

There are 400 kilometers between Baku and Shusha, the last remaining Azerbaijan territory in the Karabakh region. However, travel, for now, is via this exhausting and long route. Meanwhile, the construction of new roads and new cities are underway. Armenia turned the city center and villages of culture and civilization capital Shusha, which it invaded for 28 years, almost into a ghost town. They massacred history. They destroyed the mosques, homes, water fountains, and mansions. They even removed the stones and took them. Directly across Karabakh, there is the city of Khankendi, situated within Armenian borders. It is quite visible. In fact, even the sounds are audible. Khankendi is part of the Karabakh territory that was reclaimed 28 years later. In other words, it is still under Armenian occupation, and “for now” under the watch of Russian Peacekeeping Forces.

Azerbaijan wants the incomplete operation to be concluded through war or without war, and for Khankendi to be returned to Azerbaijan. Some of the officials with whom we met are pointing to 2025 and beyond. However, Armenia has plans as well, which are spread throughout the Azerbaijan side in the form of hearsay.

Such that Armenians associate Karabakh’s defeat to Türkiye and the Bayraktar drones. They are not hiding this, and they feel shamed as a nation. In other words, they have dreams of re-occupying Karabakh. But for them to overcome this hysterical state, Türkiye’s attitude must change. The expectation from Türkiye is a country that does not protect Azerbaijan, two countries that do not run to each other for help whenever they are in trouble, and a Turkish president whom the Azerbaijani president refers to as “big brother,” but rather a Republic of Türkiye that is closer to Armenia than normal. For this to happen, the ruling power in Türkiye must change. This is how Türkiye’s May 14 elections are viewed by the Armenian side. This is not an interpretation, but a matter discussed in both Baku and Shusha. These hearsay are really based on open sources. The analysis in March by Euronews – notorious for its anti-government publications in Türkiye – with the title, “Türkiye’de olası iktidar değişikliği Ermenistan ile ilişkileri nasıl etkiler?” (How will a likely government change in Türkiye affect relations with Armenia?), is only one of the signs.

Occupation-term Karabakh President Arayik Harutyunyan stated in recent months, “All documents identifying Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan are unacceptable for us.” Harutyunyan’s denial of the defeat is the reason underlying the close combat between the two countries’ troops on the border. Nowadays, the same Harutyunyan’s comments centered around Türkiye’s May 14 elections are being discussed. There is no doubt that the biggest dream is the ruling government in Türkiye will change, and Karabakh will be “returned” to Armenia without war in the post-Erdoğan period. The Armenian front has managed to put this hearsay in circulation. But is it successful? In other words, does it scare and unsettle the Azerbaijani public? We returned to Baku with Ali Muradoğlu and his wife, who reclaimed their destroyed home in Aghdam 28 years later. I opened the subject as we were chatting, and they made me regret ever asking them. They were so overflowed with emotion that they shared the agony of those 28 years and the gratitude of being back on their land with striking comparisons.

They said they made vows for the night of May 14, much like the retaking of Karabakh. Muradoğlu’s wife, who is the Shusha delegate said, “We are the ones who will be celebrating on the night Erdoğan wins. Everybody will see.” I asked, “What if he loses?” She said, “Brother, you must be out of your mind.”

Let’s wait and see on the evening of May 14, whether Azerbaijanis will rejoice, or the Armenian invaders will celebrate? Both countries are waiting.