Will Biden's 'bear hug' yield results?

When U.S. President Barack Obama signed the "Iran nuclear deal," Netanyahu tried to thwart it but failed. Despite Israel's desire to strike Iran's nuclear facilities, it couldn't secure support from the U.S. Obama made considerable efforts to prevent Netanyahu from dragging the U.S. into conflict with Iran, as such a scenario was undesirable for the U.S. Strongly pro-Israel "Neocons" and other hawks openly called on the Obama administration to strike Iran's nuclear facilities.

Despite pressure from Neocons and Republican hawks, Obama signed the "Iran Nuclear Deal" in July 2015. President Donald Trump pleased Netanyahu by withdrawing the U.S. from the agreement. Biden had pledged to return to the deal, but it didn't happen.

Netanyahu seeks to provoke Iran into attacking Israel, thereby rallying U.S. support. Recently, on April 1, by targeting a building in Syria belonging to the Iranian Embassy, he attempted to force Iran into aggression. However, Iran retaliated with drones and cruise missiles, making it difficult for the U.S. to intervene.

During the first year of Biden's presidency, Israel was removed from the scope of "U.S. European Command (EUCOM)" and included in the responsibility area of "U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM)." One reason for including Israel in "CENTCOM," which operates from the Middle East to Central Asia, was to prevent Israel from attacking Iran. Analysts consider Israel's inclusion in CENTCOM as a "bear hug" tactic.

According to analysts, the "bear hug" allows the U.S. to closely monitor Israel and, due to the highly polarized political environment, enables Israel's military leadership, dissatisfied with Netanyahu, to influence them. CENTCOM Commander General Michael Erik Kurilla's recent intense interactions with Israel's Defense Minister and Chief of General Staff can be seen in this context.

The Biden Administration's reluctance to respond to Israel's provocations weakens Netanyahu's hand. Neocons and hawkish Republicans in Washington have once again stepped into the spotlight. Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn demanded immediate retaliation against Iran after Tehran's attempted attack on Israel. Neocon John Bolton even published an extensive list of targets for Israel to strike in Iran in the April 14 issue of the Washington Examiner, hinting that the U.S. would inevitably support the attack.

Biden, preparing for the November elections, knows that war with Iran would not benefit him. On the contrary, it would strengthen Trump's hand. Moreover, there is division in the U.S. Congress over unequivocal support for Israel. Netanyahu is stuck in Gaza and facing instability at home. Therefore, there is personal gain in regionalizing the war.

On the other hand, the Biden Administration has been pressing for about "14 billion dollars" in new aid to Israel for some time. However, it wants to provide this aid in a comprehensive package that also includes Ukraine and Taiwan. This bill, worth 95 billion dollars, was approved by the Senate with the support of Centrist Republicans. Trump-supporting Republicans who wanted aid to Ukraine to stop blocked its voting in the House of Representatives. House Republicans only approved a bill that included aid to Israel, but it failed due to Democratic opposition. Similarly, another bill worth 17.5 billion dollars for Israel failed due to Democratic opposition in the House, despite being prepared by House Republicans.

Iran's symbolic retaliation against Israel has accelerated the reintroduction of these bills. Democratic leaders in the Senate and Centrist Republican leaders are calling for the 95 billion dollar bill to be voted on in the House of Representatives. House Speaker Mike Johnson says he will bring aid bills for Israel to the agenda this week, but the specifics of the aid have not yet been clarified.