Evangelicals Are Divided Over Kamala Harris!

In my previous post, I mentioned that the “neocons” in the U.S. are likely to support Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. Now, the “White Evangelical Christians,” a crucial voter base for Republicans, are also a target for the Democratic Party’s campaign strategists.

In 2016, Donald Trump was viewed with suspicion by Evangelicals due to his lifestyle. Mike Pence, an Evangelical politician, competed against Trump in the primaries. After winning the primaries, Trump selected Pence as his running mate to secure the support of White Evangelicals. In the November 2016 election, Trump received more than 80% of the votes from White Evangelicals.

Evangelicals, who make up about 14% of the population, represented 20% of voters in 2020. They constitute a third of the Republican Party's base. Alongside mainstream White Protestants and White Catholics, they form a significant part of the opposition in America’s “culture wars.” White Protestants make up 14% of the population, while White Catholics account for 13%. These three major blocks are key allies for the Republicans.

For Democrats, increasing Evangelical support is crucial for winning elections. Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008 and 2012 by receiving 26% and 21% of the White Evangelical votes, respectively. Hillary Clinton lost in 2016 because she only garnered 16% of this group’s support. Joe Biden won by securing 24% of their votes. Currently, 85% of White Evangelicals support Republicans, while 14% support Democrats.

The November 2024 elections are critical for both parties. Democrats are solely focused on ensuring Trump loses, which would mean the continuation of the bipartisan American political system. Both mainstream anti-Trump Republicans and neocons, who want to continue U.S. foreign policy in the context of “endless wars,” seem to be pinning their hopes on Kamala Harris winning.

In the 2024 elections, even minor shifts in votes will be extremely crucial. Consequently, Democratic strategists are working to increase their support among White Evangelicals. In this context, Evangelicals working with Democrats have started mobilizing for Kamala Harris.

The “Evangelicals for Harris” group has organized campaigns promoting the idea that Harris is a better Christian than Trump. Prominent Trump-supporting Evangelicals, including Franklin Graham, the son of the legendary preacher Billy Graham, argue that the “Evangelicals for Harris” are misusing his father’s name to criticize Trump. Graham claims that if his father were alive, he would support Trump.

Jerushah Duford, Billy Graham’s granddaughter, has participated in an event organized by the “Evangelicals for Harris” group, complaining that continued support for Trump is driving young people away from Christianity. Meanwhile, Mike Pence, who served as Vice President during Trump’s presidency, has publicly announced that he will not support Trump. Also, conservative Evangelical writer, lawyer, and ideologue David French stated in an August column in the “New York Times” that he will vote for Kamala Harris to rid conservatism of Trump.

There is ongoing debate between social-liberal pastors, representing a segment of White Evangelicals, and Trump-supporting pastors, who represent a larger portion. Trump-supporting Evangelicals are spreading propaganda that Kamala Harris is a devilish politician masquerading as a Christian. They are trying to deter potential Harris supporters by claiming, “If you vote for Harris, you’re not Evangelical.” Meanwhile, the Christian-Zionist faction of Evangelicals, who fervently support Israel, remains firmly behind Trump.

White Evangelicals are a critical factor in American elections. Shifting this dynamic is strategically important for Democrats in both the short term (the 2024 elections) and the long term (the “culture wars”). For Republicans, maintaining this dynamic is even more crucial.