Ankara's patience has run out

Let Me Show You, With Examples, What Turkish Diplomacy Has Been Dealing with in Cyprus for 50 Years

And I don’t even need to dig that far back into history. Let’s just look at the latest developments, fresh off the press.

The Greek Cypriots were told: “Let’s open new border crossings between the north and south to help bring the two communities closer.”

They responded: “Fine, but let the crossings run east-west instead—so they’re more convenient for Greek Cypriots.”

They were told: “Let’s clear the mines from the island.”

They replied: “No, if you clear them, you’ll invade us. Let’s leave them where they are.”

They were told: “Let’s install solar panels in the buffer zone to generate electricity for both sides.”

They said: “We’re fine with the panels—but run the power line to the south. The Turkish side can get their electricity through us.”

(The Turkish side responded: “Either the line runs to both sides, or you’ll have to buy electricity through the TRNC. Your call.”)

They were told: “You’re facing a drought. Let’s share the water Türkiye sends to the north.”

They replied: “We won’t talk to Northern Cyprus. We’ll only negotiate with Türkiye.”

All of these exchanges took place at the informal, expanded Cyprus meeting in Geneva on March 18.

Why was that meeting significant? As I explained in my previous article, it brought together the leaders of the TRNC and the Greek Cypriot Administration, UN Secretary-General Guterres, Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan, his Greek counterpart Gerapetritis, and British Minister Doughty.

For the first time in the history of the Cyprus negotiations, federalism wasn’t even on the agenda. We also noted that the UN appears to be moving away from the idea of federation.

Is This Not Just Plain Spoiled Behavior?

Let me give a few more examples. Let’s rewind a bit.

A wildfire broke out recently in the Greek Cypriot south. There was a risk it might spread to the north.

So the Turkish side said: “Let us intervene with our firefighting planes.”

The Greek side said: “Okay, but only if your planes collect water from our coastline. If they use the northern coast, we won’t allow it.”

They were told: “We can send fire trucks to help contain the fire.”

They said: “Fine, but the TRNC logos on the trucks must be covered with cloth.”

Can you believe this absurd attitude?

Let me be blunt: this level of entitlement would drive anyone mad. And Ankara has had enough. Türkiye’s decision to close the book on federation is a direct result of this intransigence that’s lasted 50 years.

All Options Should Be on the Table

Not long ago, I made this observation:

Today’s crises stem from two core factors.

First: Institutions and arrangements rooted in the Cold War (and WWII) are collapsing.

Second: Frozen conflicts from the post-Cold War era are now thawing (see: Déjà Vu: A New Frontline Emerges, April 1).

Cyprus falls into the first category.

The handover of the Dodecanese Islands to Greece in 1947, and the rise of the Enosis (union with Greece) movement in the 1950s, posed a serious threat to Türkiye.

Turkish Cypriots became a target, and Türkiye was being pushed back to its coasts.

That’s why Türkiye launched the 1974 Peace Operation in Cyprus.

The fall of the Baath regime in Syria, the end of the occupation in Karabakh, the Russia-Ukraine war (and Crimea’s future), and the decline of the PKK—all are consequences of those same seismic shifts.

Cyprus will be affected too. And now is the time for a resolution—one way or another.

Ankara has read the writing on the wall and moved on from federation.

Now, the TRNC needs international recognition—and an end to sanctions.

Otherwise, the ongoing status quo is nothing short of injustice against Turkish Cypriots.

And if recognition doesn’t come, other alternatives must logically be considered.

A New Chapter for Cyprus

From Thursday to Sunday last week, the TRNC hosted Teknofest.

The country’s population is around 470,000.

Despite intermittent rain over four days, a staggering 225,000 people attended the festival.

That’s nearly half the entire population—clear evidence of Turkish Cypriots’ hunger for high tech, defense industries, innovation, and entrepreneurship.

(And it wasn’t just Turks who attended. I met foreign university students, tourists, and even Greek Cypriots from the south.)

Here’s something that needs to be said loud and clear:

The TRNC doesn’t just need international recognition and political independence.

It also needs a new story—one that economically empowers Turkish Cypriots.

The service sector can only take you so far.

The island needs to be economically independent as well.

Teknofest’s chairman, Selçuk Bayraktar, said it best:

“We’re here to turn our brother nation into a new hub for technology.”

This is where the Turkish Cypriots’ new story can begin—and must begin.

Two Strategic Developments to Watch

First: The Turkish side of Cyprus has no water or electricity problems.

Water flows in from Türkiye.

The Greek Cypriot side, however, faces shortages in both.

That’s why they’re trying to set up an undersea electricity cable linking Greece (via Crete) to southern Cyprus, and from there to Israel.

Against this backdrop, President Erdoğan’s recent remarks on the island take on added significance:

“We brought water to Northern Cyprus via an undersea pipeline—now we’ll bring electricity too.”

Second: Greece has unilaterally opened an international bid for hydrocarbon exploration in two zones south of Crete.

These zones overlap with the maritime area defined in the 2019 Türkiye-Libya agreement.

In response, Libyan PM Dbeibeh released a photo showing himself marking off the area south of Crete with a pen.

Later, I saw this in Yeni Şafak: “Türkiye is joining a new project in Libya, with good news expected soon. Joint exploration off Libya’s coast will begin shortly.”

If Türkiye and Libya start joint exploration in that contested area south of Crete, that would be a game-changing move.