Thoughts on the ongoing proxy war in Ukraine

The United States, with its European allies, first launched a heavy mobilization against China through Ukraine, through Russia, and then with its allies in the Pacific, via Taiwan. This mobilization gradually led to increased cooperation between Russia and China. Wang Yi's returned from the last Munich Conference empty-handed; The fact that he breathed a sigh of relief in Moscow indicates exactly this. Xi Jinping will visit Moscow shortly. Qin Gang, who is Wang Yi's successor as Foreign Minister, made a speech for the first time, blaming the United States heavily and glorifying Russian-Chinese cooperation in all fields. India stands in the middle for now. But it is clear that the West is not very satisfied with the policies it follows. It is obvious that the US is now threatening India frequently to stay away from Russia, and the Narendra Modi administration has put broken grades on its human rights report. If these pressures increase, we can think that if it gets involved in the Russian-Chinese rapprochement, which is very likely to become stronger and to form an alliance in the near future, including military cooperation, things will get very complicated and perhaps this will greatly strengthen the possibility of a Third World War.

What could reverse this trend? Undoubtedly, the development that will renew hopes on the path of peace is, first of all, Russia and Ukraine coming to the table with their own initiatives or settling them under the pressures of the outside world. From this point of view, the view is not pleasant at all. The Zelenskyy government insists with its increasingly darker tone that they will fight until the last Ukrainian dies and that they will not sit at the table until all Ukrainian lands under "occupation", including Crimea, are liberated. The Western world, starting from the U.S., England, Germany, France, and Italy, to Poland and large and small Baltic states, is not only decreasing but increasing the shipment of arms to Ukraine. We understand that this war will continue until the final defeat of one side, even though it will cost the lives of hundreds of thousands of people. But a greater danger is that it may metastasize to other geographies via Moldova, Kosovo, or Bosnia. It was pointed out above that the issue is also on the Pacific side. We also know that the biggest showdown will take place there.

Europe turned out to be extremely vulnerable. Presumably, neither Russia nor the EU expected that the EU, especially Germany, would create resistance against the U.S. and England, according to which trade with Europe is vital for itself. But it didn't. Germany and, of course, the EU, in the face of this pressure, fell apart without even putting up a fight. Therefore, there is no hope for the EU in the short term. Olaf Scholtz was Finance Minister in 2019 when he decided to impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2. He harshly stated that this practice interfered with Germany's internal affairs. The change in stance couldn't be more pronounced.

One of the most talked about issues is that there are those who think that the Democrats or Biden's losing the upcoming elections and the coming to power of the Republicans who criticize their hawkish policies is a chance for a softening, perhaps for peace. Let's take a look at this now.

We know that the Putin-Trump meeting, which took place in Helsinki in 2018, was extremely hot with jokes and gift-giving. On the contrary, after the first and last Biden-Putin meeting, which lasted for about 4 hours in 2021, the statements made by the leaders, full of implications that meant mutual complaints and accusations, flew into the air, and the atmosphere was frozen. It was clear from the start that this would happen. Because the Democrats, of which Biden was a member, claimed that Trump could not actually win the elections in the previous period, that the election arithmetic was distorted by the interventions of the Russian secret service, and that this victory was given to Trump as a gift with the contribution of Russia. In their eyes, Trump was Putin's man. Well, Trump also exhibited speeches and behaviors that would make you think about this as if he was making speeches and behaviors that would not disturb the relations with Putin and Russia. However, practice reveals exactly the opposite. Russia-US relations began to tense even under Trump. As early as 2017, the US accused Russia of violating the INF treaty. Again in 2017, Russia reacted very harshly to the US attacking Syria with cruise missiles.

The banning of EXXON's activities in Russia, Trump's accusation of Russia helping Iran, the problem of numerical limitation and mutual reduction of diplomatic missions that started in the Obama era, aside from solving the issue, deepening of the August 2 Sanctions Act against Russia against Trump with the signature of Medvedev, Trump's approval of giving heavy weapons to Ukraine, accusing Russia of Dombass, opposing the development of the Nord Stream 2 project, and announcing that he will impose sanctions on the companies working there. The list goes on and on with titles like this.

In short, the seeds of the environment where our uneasiness is increasing with every passing day seem to have been planted much further back. It is necessary to perceive and evaluate the Democrats' criticism of Trump as not being radical enough. In fact, Biden did nothing but reinforce the policies that Trump started and carried out in shambles. Therefore, it would not be wise to expect that removing a Republican government would necessarily lead to peace.