What do the results of Super Tuesday indicate?

In the Republican Party primary process, Nikki Haley withdrew from the race as expected. On "Super Tuesday," held in 15 states, Trump managed to win all states. While Trump secured overwhelming victories in many states with over 70%, his support remained around 60% in states like Virginia, indicating dissatisfaction among a significant number of voters within the party regarding his candidacy. Vermont, Utah, and Colorado, where Haley came closest to winning, saw Trump's votes remain around 50.2%, 56.4%, and 63.2%, respectively. It was not expected for Haley to win in South Carolina, her home state where she previously served as governor. However, the question remained about the extent of reluctant voters towards Trump. These election results indicated that while Republicans have a clear preference for Trump, not the entire party is fully unified behind the former president.

Haley's Withdrawal:

In American elections, especially in swing states, the turnout of party voters is crucial. Trump, while seeking to win over independent voters against Biden, also needs to court Republican voters. Haley's announcement of withdrawing from the race and not endorsing Trump in her speech aimed to remind the party's internal opposition that cannot be easily ignored. Haley indicated this by stating that Trump would "make an effort to win the votes of those who didn't vote for him." Despite the knowledge that Trump would comfortably win on Super Tuesday and secure the party nomination, a quarter of voters in many states expressed their dissatisfaction by voting for Haley. Haley's ability to garner significant support without spending substantial amounts on campaign ads last week demonstrates the presence of a considerable number of people dissatisfied with Trump's candidacy.

On election night, Trump declared the results a historic victory and pledged to work for unity within the party and the nation. While this may indicate his awareness of the presence of those within the party who are not satisfied with his candidacy, his statement, "winning will bring unity," hints at how he will deal with opponents. Trump, who does not accept the legitimacy of opposition from within the party, believes that these voters will somehow come to his side. While using harsh language against Haley and urging her supporters to join the MAGA movement, Trump also claimed that a significant portion of his opponent's funding came from "radical left Democrats." Unlike Trump, who conveyed a message implying that the party's internal opposition is doomed, Biden said he shared many similarities with Haley's supporters, thereby seeking their support.

Looking Towards November:

Surveys indicating that Haley has a better chance against Biden than Trump in the November elections failed to persuade Republican voters. Trump's transformation of the Republican party around his image leaves no room for alternative names. Despite this, Haley's slight presence is still significant for her political future. If Trump loses to Biden again in the November elections, Haley will be vindicated and may emerge as the strongest candidate in the 2028 elections. While Haley was able to withstand Trump's opposition longer than De Santis, she failed to persuade the Trumpist base of the party, but she has left her mark in history in her own way. However, if Trump loses in November, it does not necessarily mean he will completely withdraw from the scene. It is not difficult to predict that the Trumpist MAGA movement will play a critical role in shaping the Republican party platform.

Biden had a much smoother primary process compared to Trump, who won the party nomination primarily through the strength of his base. Biden's main problem is highlighted as the protest movement that emerged due to his failure to push for a ceasefire in the Palestinian issue. Over 100,000 protest votes were cast in Michigan, a critical swing state, and around 45,000 in Minnesota on Super Tuesday. These numbers show that Biden needs to convince the protest movement led by Arab and Muslim voters in swing states. The results of Super Tuesday also showed that the protest movement in Michigan was echoed in other states like North Carolina and Massachusetts. While the Biden campaign tried to appeal to anti-Trump Republican votes by saying that Biden called Haley on election night, they did not comment on the protest votes within the Democratic party. This suggests that Biden does not have a strategy to attract internal opposition in swing states. However, it is clear that he is targeting center-right Republican voters who voted for Haley. Therefore, at this stage, rather than trying to win over opposition, he is trying to attract opponents of his rival. A similar situation seems to be the case for Trump, as he appears to focus on different groups, such as disaffected black voters, rather than Republican opponents. After the Biden-Trump race is finalized, both campaigns will have the obligation to both appeal to different segments of voters and attract internal opposition within their parties. Otherwise, they may experience vulnerability due to internal opposition in the face of the moves of the other side.