The fate of Iraq's Turkmens and Turkey’s role

The ongoing Iraqi offensive to oust Daesh from the northern city of Mosul has brought Iraq's Turkmen population into the spotlight.

Turkmens are a Turkic ethnic group based largely in Iraq and Syria, where they live alongside large Arab and Kurdish populations. The Turkmen community, which includes both Sunni and Shia Muslims, shares close cultural affinities with the Turkish people.

The Iraqi Turkmen community has felt the largest impact from Daesh's seizure of vast swathes of territory in northern and western Iraq in 2014.

Before Daesh's emergence in Iraq, Turkmens used to live in northern Iraq, in cities like Mosul, Kirkuk, Erbil, and Diyala. Their land, however, began to shrink, particularly in Mosul and Kirkuk, when the militant group overran Mosul and other cities in northern and western Iraq.

Many Turkmens were forced to flee their homes and took refuge in other areas due to the Daesh militants.

The predominantly Turkmen areas of Tal Afar and Tuz Khurmatu topped the list of cities that saw the biggest Turkmen exodus since the Daesh emergence in Iraq.

Though Daesh militants have been cleared from some Turkmen areas, most Turkmens were not allowed to return, leaving their community caught between Daesh terrorism and attempts to change Iraq's demographic makeup.

The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq ignited sectarian conflicts in the country. Turkmens were no exception to this, as sectarian rifts have affected their community too.

The divisions deepened after the end of the U.S. occupation, especially in the city of Tal Afar, west of Mosul, where political differences escalated into armed clashes among Turkmens.

In 2014, the inter-Turkmen tension spread from Tal Afar to other areas like Tuz Khormato and some towns in the northern Kirkuk province.

The situation worsened when Daesh killed Shia Turkmens and forcibly displaced them, leading Shias to see Daesh and Sunnis as one group.

The marginalization of Iraq's Sunnis by the central government has also led to the emergence of some extremist Sunni groups and the expansion of Daesh's grip in Iraq.

Daesh's control of vast swathes of territory and the Turkmens' loss of land have turned formerly Turkmen-dominated areas into battlefields, particularly in northern Iraq.

As a result, groups as the Kurdish Peshmerga forces and armed militias tried to extend their grip to the Turkmen areas in Tuz Khormato and northern Diyala.

Some elements from the terrorist PKK organization have even entered some areas in Kirkuk under the pretext of fighting Daesh.

The forcible displacement of the Turkmens from their areas has caused strains in their social fabric. Now thousands of Iraqi Turkmens are unwilling to return to their land even if Daesh militants are defeated.

The social fabric of Iraq's Turkmens has been frayed by the forcible displacement of their community in recent years, triggering fears that the Turkmen identity was fading away.

In a nutshell, Iraq's Turkmens now face major risks due to the current conflict: losing their land, or losing their cultural identity.

In recent years, Turkmen have gathered under the umbrella of the Iraqi Turkmen Front, which has united all Turkmen visions and succeeded in engaging the Turkmen community in the Iraqi political process, particularly following the 2010 elections.

But Daesh's seizure of Mosul and other areas has undermined Turkmen political ambitions, particularly in Mosul, Diyala, and Saladin.

Due to the current struggle between the central government in Baghdad and the Kurdish Regional Government in Erbil over Kirkuk, Turkmens in Kirkuk are now struggling to play a political role.

The Turkmens and their political structure are deeply rooted in Iraq. So reviving the role of the Turkmen community remains possible but needs some urgent measures, including Turkmens being confident that Turkey is capable of protecting their lives and getting them to return to their land.

Turkey, meanwhile, should not only provide the Turkmens with moral support, but also work to revive their hopes.

Turkey's humanitarian role in helping Iraqis, including the Turkmens, cannot be ignored. However, Turkey still must have a strategy for the Turkmens that goes beyond a humanitarian role to include the protection of their lives.

Turkey can play a role in guaranteeing the post-Daesh safe return of the Turkmens to their land and preventing predominantly Turkmen areas from turning into battlefields.

Turkey should not use only its soft power, but should deploy its “hard power" tools if necessary with a view to protecting the lives and cultural identity of the Turkmens.