The visit of U.S. Secretary of State Blinken to Istanbul (and the region) was significant and deserves attention. The reason is the initiation of a new quest regarding Gaza. We'll discuss what this quest entails, why Blinken came to Istanbul, with which agenda, how Ankara approaches the issue—and even the responses given. But first, let's highlight some key points.
Heart-wrenching images and photos from Gaza continue to emerge. The region is experiencing the dirtiest attack of the past century, with civilians being directly targeted. Israel announced a slowdown in air and ground attacks on Gaza just before Blinken's visit. One reason is the genocide case opened by South Africa. Netanyahu is in panic mode. Another reason is Tel Aviv realizing it can't eliminate Hamas. The U.S. has reached the same conclusion. Hence, efforts for post-war Gaza, envisioning the end of conflicts, sidelining Hamas, have gained momentum. Blinken visited the region for this reason.
Meanwhile, Israel is taking steps to escalate the conflict in the region. Assassinations of high-profile figures of Hamas and Hezbollah are happening in Lebanon (including the ISIS-organized terror attack in Iran). As we mentioned immediately after October 7, Israel's next target after Gaza is to create a buffer zone in the south of Lebanon and Syria. In this context, Israel is openly provoking Hezbollah. If Hezbollah doesn't respond, Israel may enter southern Lebanon. Note Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's emphasis that "I think the Israelis are struggling not to engage in war with Lebanon." The U.S. is secretly negotiating with Iran for Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani River before any conflict (See Terror Attack and the U.S.-Iran deal, December 29, 2023).
In this context, Blinken visited regional countries, including Türkiye. As far as I understand from behind-the-scenes talks and official statements, the current situation can be summarized in three main points:
1. The U.S. is exploring how the process will unfold after the conflicts in Gaza. It poses the question of "Who will govern Gaza?" to the parties involved. The U.S. wants Fatah to govern Gaza (preferably without Abbas). There are reports that Blinken convinced Israel to allow a UN mission to the north of Gaza. Importantly, according to information from Greek media, Blinken mentioned in Greece that Türkiye could be a guarantor for Gaza.
2. The U.S. is aware of the legitimacy issue. Due to the recent events, Hamas's popularity has increased not only in Gaza but also in the West Bank. The U.S. is thinking hard about how to ensure the legitimacy of the actor they will replace Hamas with (an actor that can get along with Israel and Egypt) after sidelining Hamas. They are asking their counterparts, "How can we ensure legitimacy in a Palestine without Hamas?" Türkiye's stance on this issue is clear: an actor elected by the Palestinians, with a societal base, cannot be rejected.
3. The reconstruction of Gaza is on the U.S. agenda. As mentioned earlier, they want to shift the entire cost to the Gulf countries. However, there are two potential issues: First, Arab countries now want to see signs of a two-state solution before taking on this task. Türkiye's efforts in the "Contact Group" have played a crucial role in this. Ankara has dominated the negotiations by stating, "A two-state solution is essential for a fundamental resolution of the issue," pulling the Gulf toward this position. Second, Turkish diplomacy might prevent Gaza's reconstruction discussions from progressing in this way. It is said that Ankara indicated Tel Aviv as the culprit and responded, "Whoever destroyed Gaza should foot the bill." Of course, there is a note in diplomatic circles: If the Gulf wants to take on this burden, Ankara won't oppose it. The best should be done for the interests of the Palestinians. However, the culprits of this destruction are Israel, and the perpetrators should be brought to justice, with the economic bill sent to Tel Aviv.
