The unemployment rate is forecast to have increased three-tenths of a percentage point to 3.8% in March. With the ranks of the unemployed ballooning, economists say the jobless rate could top 10% in April. Mounting job losses spell disaster for gross domestic product, and economists say the government and the Federal Reserve will need to provide additional stimulus.
Some also argued a portion of cash payments to American families was likely to be saved, not spent, pointing to similar patterns in the early 2000s.
Economists believe GDP contracted sharply in the first quarter and that the economy slipped into recession in March.
The National Bureau of Economic Research, the private research institute regarded as the arbiter of U.S. recessions, does not define a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real gross domestic product, as is the rule of thumb in many countries. Instead, it looks for a drop in activity, spread across the economy and lasting more than a few months.
"It is premature to predict a V-shaped economic recovery based on the massive stimulus program," said Sung Won Sohn, a business economic professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. "To put the economy back on its feet we need a bigger plan which will include infrastructure. We have a lot more pain ahead of us."
Wage growth is expected to have remained steady in March, but that is all in the rear view mirror. Average hourly earnings are forecast rising 0.2% in March after increasing 0.3% in February. That probably kept the annual increase in wages at 3.0%. The average workweek likely fell to 34.1 hours last month from 34.4 hours in February.
The anticipated job losses in March were probably spread across all industries, with deep cuts in the leisure and hospitality sector, which has seen restaurants and bars, movie theaters and other social gathering venues closed.
Transportation and warehousing payrolls likely declined further after shedding 4,000 jobs in February as shipping volumes at ports have plummeted. But hiring for the 2020 Census likely boosted government employment in March.
