ANALYSIS - Palestinian elections to test Fatah's cohesion

As Palestinians plan to hold legislative and presidential elections for the first time in 15 years, attention has turned toward the Fatah movement's participation led by President Mahmoud Abbas.

Abbas is facing stiff competition from two candidates -- Marwan Barghouti, a member of the central committee currently serving a life sentence in an Israeli jail, and Muhammad Dahlan, a controversial figure who was dismissed and is currently harbored by the United Arab Emirates as he faces legal cases from Palestine and Turkey on several charges, including murder, corruption, and involvement in a 2016 defeated coup in Turkey.

Palestinian factions agreed Tuesday in Cairo to establish an elections court based on a national consensus among judges from Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza.

- Barred from running

Abdullah Kamil, a key figure in the Fatah movement, mentioned in a Facebook post those within the movement who will be barred from running in any elections.

They include members of the Central Committee, Revolutionary Council, former members of the Legislative Council, officials of frameworks, ministers, and current and former governors.

Kamil indicated that his movement would avoid the "bitter experience in 2006," referring to the last Palestinian polls. Hamas emerged victorious, adding that it will not allow any member to run on independent lists.

Jibril Rajoub, the secretary of the Fatah Central Committee, said on Jan. 25 that the movement "will run in the Legislative Council elections with one list." Legislative elections will be held May 22 and presidential polls July 31 for the first time in 15 years.

- Early splits

But political analyst Nawaf Al-Amer thinks that Fatah "was never united" despite recently marking 56 years since its founding.

"Fatah competed in the first legislative elections in 1996 and 2006 contesting with more than one opinion, vision, and narrative," said Al-Amer.

Fatah may need to ally with an external party such as Hamas or Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) factions, and internally with one or several lists, he said.

Regarding the second option, Al-Amer argues that the movement may form an official list that will present Abbas as its candidate and another one representing imprisoned Barghouti as its candidate.

Al-Amer believes Dahlan stands no chance to run for the presidency despite his popularity in Gaza "due to a judicial decision issued against him by Palestinian courts" on several charges, including "embezzling money."

In 2013, the Palestinian Corruption Court sentenced Dahlan to 15 years and slapped him with a fine of $930,496 after being found guilty of corruption.

Al-Amer sees the recent meeting between the heads of Jordan and Egypt's intelligence services in Ramallah as Arab efforts to reconcile Abbas and Dahlan to allow the latter to compete in upcoming presidential elections.

On the other hand, Al-Amer believes Barghouti would not seek to form a united list with Dahlan for fear that the latter would "deprive him of the votes from the West Bank" while also warning that "nothing is excluded in the Palestinian arena."

- Possible scenarios

Mahmoud Fatafta, a researcher on Palestinian politics, laid out possible scenarios for Fatah's participation in the elections.

The first scenario will be forming a single list that includes middle-level leaders, youth and women, to regain the confidence of these groups, which have been discouraged by the poor performances of successive governments at the political, economic and democratic levels.

The second scenario is the formation of several lists within Fatah with some Central Committee members a separate list from the official one, which may pave the way for "a direct or indirect presence of Muhammad Dahlan."

The last scenario is the formation of lists by people who feel "marginalized and excluded," which may be under different headings.

Fatafta believes Dahlan will have a presence in Palestine's political arena due to his influence and a strong voting base, especially in the camps and in the Gaza Strip, thanks to "the role of money in serving Dahlan, as well as neighboring regimes seeking to return him to the Fatah scene."

- Fatah and opinion poll

A recent opinion poll conducted by the Ramallah-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) published Dec. 27 projects 38% of Palestinians will vote for Fatah and 34% for Hamas.

However, if jailed, Marwan Barghouti forms an independent list, he is expected to win 25% of votes while only 19% said he would vote for Fatah's official list.

The poll also projects Dahlan to win 7% of votes if he forms his independent list, while 27% would, in such a case, vote for the official Fatah list.

Regarding a contest for presidency between Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh, the polls project the former to receive 43% of votes and the latter 50%. It added that 66% of those who participated in the survey demand the resignation of Abbas.

If elections were held and Abbas did not run, Barghouti would be the favorite to win with 37%, followed by Haniyeh at 23%, and Muhammad Dahlan, 7%.

Translated from Arabic by Ibrahim Mukhtar

**Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu Agency.